GFT Facts & Stats Friday: NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway
30 AUGUST 2024
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News
DARLINGTON, SC — Darlington Raceway sets the stage for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series regular-season finale, the Cook Out Southern 500, this Sunday, September 1 at 6 p.m. ET on USA Network, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. Only three spots are still available in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, and this is the final chance the drivers have to lock themselves into the postseason.
Facing the competitors Sunday night is the historic Darlington Raceway, which is unlike any other track on the schedule. The 1.366-mile, egg-shaped, paved oval has hosted 126 NASCAR Cup Series races dating back to 1950, and with its rich tradition of history it has become one of the most iconic tracks amongst competitors, earning the nickname ‘The Lady in Black’, and this weekend’s Cook Out Southern 500 is considered a ‘Crown Jewel’ event.
This season marks the first time Darlington Raceway has hosted the NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale, race №26 on the schedule, since the inception of the Playoffs in the series in 2004.
2024 NASCAR CUP SERIES PLAYOFFS
Darlington and the Southern 500 — Final Race of the Regular Season
GFT BUBBLE WATCH- Ross Chastain (-27) is P18 and Bubba Wallace (-21) is just outside the Playoff grid in P17 with one last shot this weekend at Darlington. Is Ty Gibbs safe at +39? Can Chris Buescher (+58) hold onto P16 and make the Playoffs, or do Chastain and Wallace find a way in?
2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Clinch Scenarios — Darlington Raceway
Already Clinched
The following 13 drivers have clinched a spot in the 16-driver postseason field: Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric, Harrison Burton.
Can Clinch Via Points
If there is a repeat winner or a win by a driver who cannot advance to the playoffs, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the 4th winless driver in the standings. The same point requirements listed below would hold true if a new win comes from among Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs or Chris Buescher.
· Martin Truex Jr.: Would clinch regardless of finish
· Ty Gibbs: Would clinch with 16 points
· Chris Buescher: Would clinch with 34 points
· Bubba Wallace: Could only clinch with help
· Ross Chastain: Could only clinch with help
If there is a new winner from Bubba Wallace or another winless driver lower in the standings but still eligible to advance to the playoffs, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the 3rd winless driver in the standings.
· Martin Truex Jr.: Would clinch with 19 points
· Ty Gibbs: Would clinch with 38 points
· Chris Buescher: Could only clinch with help
· Bubba Wallace: Could only clinch with help
· Ross Chastain: Could only clinch with help
Can Clinch Via Win
The following drivers would clinch on their win alone:
· Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch, Chase Briscoe, Todd Gilliland, Carson Hocevar, Michael McDowell, Josh Berry, Noah Gragson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ryan Preece, Daniel Hemric, Austin Dillon, Justin Haley, John Hunter Nemechek, Corey LaJoie, Zane Smith
Can Clinch Regular Season Championship
Additionally, the Regular Season Championship could be clinched by the following drivers:
· Tyler Reddick: Would clinch with 44 points
· Kyle Larson: Could only clinch with help
· Chase Elliott: Could only clinch with help
NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out Southern 500
Darlington Raceway
Sunday, September 1 at 6 p.m. ET
The Purse: $8,644,143
TV: USA, 5:30 p.m. ET
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Distance: 501.32 miles (367 Laps)
- Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 115)
- Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 230)
- Final Stage (Ends on Lap 367)
WINS
This weekend. eight of the 54 NASCAR Cup Series Darlington race winners are active this weekend.
Statistical Advance: Analyzing the Southern 500
DRIVER RATING
DARLINGTON-SPECIFIC STATISTICS
(Driver stats below are during the Loop Data Era: 2005 to Present)
Christopher Bell (№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One top five, two top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 16.400, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.276, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 79.1, 12th-best
· 1,826 Laps in the Top 15 (58.1%), 12th-most
Kyle Busch (№8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· One win, six top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average Finish of 13.880, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.652, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.3, fourth-best
· 6,836 Laps in the Top 15 (78.9%), fourth-most
William Byron (№24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, four top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 14.833, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 10.979, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 94.6, sixth-best
· 3,003 Laps in the Top 15 (77.5%), fifth-most
Chase Elliott (№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Four top fives, seven top 10s
· Average Finish of 16.667, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.741, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 84.0, 11th-best
· 3,443 Laps in the Top 15 (69.2%), ninth-most
Ty Gibbs (№54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One top five, one top 10
· Average Finish of 13.500, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 15.031, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 78.1, 13th-best
· 498 Laps in the Top 15 (37.7%), 13th-most
Denny Hamlin (№11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Four wins, 13 top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 8.250, series-best
· Average Running Position of 7.800, series-best
· Driver Rating of 107.0, series-best
· 7,329 Laps in the Top 15 (88.4%), series-most
Erik Jones (№43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota)
· Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
· Average Finish of 12.385, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.996, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 87.7, 10th-best
· 2,955 Laps in the Top 15 (69.6%), eighth-most
Brad Keselowski (№6 RFK Racing Ford)
· Two wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 10.905, second-best
· Average Running Position of 12.164, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.7, seventh-best
· 4,860 Laps in the Top 15 (67.6%), 10th-most
Kyle Larson (№5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, six top fives, eight top 10s
· Average Finish of 11.308, third-best
· Average Running Position of 9.618, second-best
· Driver Rating of 105.6, second-best
· 3,618 Laps in the Top 15 (80.7%), second-most
Joey Logano (№22 Team Penske Ford)
· One win, six top fives, 10 top 10s; two poles
· Average Finish of 13.571, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 11.328, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 92.9, ninth-best
· 5,427 Laps in the Top 15 (75.5%), sixth-most
Tyler Reddick (№45 23XI Racing Toyota)
· Three top fives, four top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 13.400, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.322, third-best
· Driver Rating of 93.7, eighth-best
· 2,492 Laps in the Top 15 (79.3%), third-most
Martin Truex Jr (№19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Two wins, four top fives, 10 top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 13.917, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.497, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 100.4, third-best
· 5,993 Laps in the Top 15 (72.3%), seventh-most
GFT NASCAR BOX SCORES
After 25 Races …
Manufactures Box Score:
Chevrolet = 11
Toyota = 8
Ford = 6
Team Box Score:
Hendrick Motorsports = 9
Driver Box Score:
Kyle Larson = 4 wins
GFT AI NASCAR Fantasy LIVE — back in the top 15%
Initial GFT NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks for Darlington
**NOTE** Be sure to follow us on X (aka Twitter) to see the updated GFT NASCAR Fantasy Live picks AFTER our AI models ingest the Practice and Qualifying data. For a Sunday race, this usually happens overnight Saturday and is published Sunday morning at least 2 hours before the green flag.
