GFT Facts and Stats Friday: NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway
1 November 2024
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News
MARTINSVILLE, VA — It’s the penultimate Cup Series Playoff race at Martinsville to finalize Championship Four and the historic 0.526-mile Martinsville Speedway will once again play host to the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs’ Round of 8 elimination race, the Xfinity 500 on Sunday, November 3 at 2 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
After an amazing Homestead-Miami Speedway Playoff race last Sunday, which saw 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick now join Team Penske’s Joey Logano as the only two drivers locked into the next round. With two spots still available, at least one will be filled by a driver that earns their position in the Championship 4 Round on points.
NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway
Sunday, November 3, 2 p.m. ET
The Purse: $8,991,338
TV: NBC, 1:30 p.m. ET
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Distance: 263 miles (500 Laps)
— Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 130)
— Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 260)
— Final Stage (Ends on Lap 500)
Currently, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Chrisopher Bell (+29) and Hendrick Motorsport’s William Byron (+7) are the two drivers occupying the spots above the Championship 4 Round cut line. Just below the cutoff to the next round is 2021 series champion Kyle Larson (-7), followed by Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin (-18), Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney (-38) and Hendrick Motorsport’s Chase Elliott (-43).
Since the inception of the elimination-style format in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs in 2014 (the last 10 seasons), seven of the last 10 winners have earned a spot in to the Championship 4 Round with a victory in the ninth race of the Playoffs (70%) — Kevin Harvick (2014, Phoenix), Joey Logano (2016, Phoenix), Kyle Busch (2018, Phoenix), Denny Hamlin (2019, Phoenix), Chase Elliott (2020, Martinsville), Christopher Bell (2022, Martinsville) and Ryan Blaney (2023, Martinsville). Interestingly, of the seven only four drivers have won the final race of the Round of 8 when entering below the cutline (40%) — Kevin Harvick (2014, Phoenix), Denny Hamlin (2019, Phoenix), Chase Elliott (2020, Martinsville), Christopher Bell (2022, Martinsville).
Unfortunately for the drivers below the Championship 4 Round cutline, pointing their way into the next round has proven to be difficult. Only once since 2014 has a driver pointed their way into the Championship Four when entering the final race of the Round of 8 below the cutline, and that was Martin Truex Jr. in 2021. He entered the penultimate race at Martinsville sixth in points (-3) and earned his spot in the Championship Four.
Clinch Scenarios for Playoff Elimination Race at Martinsville Speedway
This weekend, Martinsville Speedway offers one final opportunity in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Round of 8 for the six postseason competitors not locked-in to compete for the final two open positions in the Championship 4 Round.
Two of the coveted four spots are spoken for, thanks to Team Penke’s Joey Logano taking the victory at the Round of 8 opener in Las Vegas and 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick pocketing the victory at Homestead-Miami. That leaves just two spots open, and we know at least one of two spots will be claimed by a driver on points.
Already Clinched
The following two drivers have clinched a spot in the four-driver field of the next round: Tyler Reddick and Joey Logano.
Can Clinch Via Points
If there is a repeat winner or a win by a driver who cannot advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the third winless driver in the standings. The same point requirements listed below would hold true if a new win comes from among Christopher Bell or William Byron.
· Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 26 points
· William Byron: Would clinch with 49 points
· Kyle Larson: Could only clinch with help
· Denny Hamlin: Could only clinch with help
· Ryan Blaney: Could only clinch with help
· Chase Elliott: Could only clinch with help
If there is a new winner from Kyle Larson or another winless driver lower in the standings but still eligible to advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the second winless driver in the standings.
· Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 34 points
· William Byron: Could only clinch with help
· Kyle Larson: Could only clinch with help
· Denny Hamlin: Could only clinch with help
Can Clinch Via Win
The following drivers would clinch on their win alone: Christopher Bell, William Byron, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott
The 2024 season marks the 21st year Martinsville Speedway has hosted a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race, and the fifth-time the track has hosted the penultimate race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs — the Round of 8 elimination race (Race №9 of 10).
Since the inception of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs in 2004, Martinsville Speedway has occupied three distinct positions on the postseason schedule; from 2004–2010 (seven seasons) Martinsville hosted the sixth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Then from 2011–2019 (nine seasons) Martinsville Speedway hosted the seventh race in the Playoffs and from 2020–2023 (four seasons) Martinsville has hosted the ninth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs — the Round of 8 elimination race that will decide the Championship Four.
A total of 12 different drivers have won a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Martinsville Speedway. NASCAR Hall of Famer Jimmie Johnson leads the NASCAR Cup Series in postseason wins at Martinsville Speedway with six Playoff victories (2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2016).
Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in postseason wins at Martinsville Speedway with two Playoff victories (2009, 2010). This weekend, five of the NASCAR Cup Series Round of 8 Playoff drivers are former Martinsville Speedway Playoff race winners, including Denny Hamlin (2009, 2010), Joey Logano (2018), Chase Elliott (2020), Christopher Bell (2022) and Ryan Blaney (2023).
This weekend 11 of the 59 NASCAR Cup Series Martinsville Speedway race winners are active, led by Denny Hamlin with five Martinsville Cup Series victories (2008, 2009, 2010 sweep, 2015). And seven of the 11 active Martinsville winners are Playoff drivers — Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott and Joey Logano.
This Is It: Penultimate Playoff race offers one last chance to advance
Shaped like a paperclip at a length of 0.526-mile, Martinsville Speedway (2020-Present), is the third different track to host the ninth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs; joining Darlington Raceway (one race: 2004) and Phoenix Raceway (15 races: 2005–2019).
A total of 13 different drivers have won the ninth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs (Race 35 of 36), led by Jimmie Johnson (2004, 2007, 2008, 2009) and Kevin Harvick (2006, 2012, 2013, 2014) with four victories each.
Kyle Busch leads all active drivers in win in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs’ ninth race with two victories (both at Phoenix 2005, 2018).
This weekend, five of the NASCAR Cup Series Round of 8 Playoff drivers are former winners in the ninth race of the Playoff, including Joey Logano (2016 Phoenix), Denny Hamlin (2019 Phoenix), Chase Elliott (2020 Martinsville), Christopher Bell (2022 Martinsville) and Ryan Blaney (2023 Martinsville).
Plus, a total of 13 different crew chiefs have won the ninth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, led by Chad Knaus with four victories (2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 all with driver Jimmie Johnson).
Seven different organizations have won the ninth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, led by Hendrick Motorsports with eight victories (2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2015, 2020, 2021).
And all three official OEMs have won the ninth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, led by Chevrolet with 12 wins, followed by Toyota with five and Ford with three.
GFT AI Race Prediction Model Preliminary Picks for Martinsville
(Will be updated after Practice and Qualifying)
**NOTE** Be sure to follow us on X (aka Twitter) to see the updated GFT NASCAR Fantasy Live picks AFTER our AI models ingest the Practice and Qualifying data. For a Sunday race, this usually happens overnight Saturday and is published Sunday morning at least 2 hours before the green flag.
