GFT Facts and Stats Friday: NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway

Bob Francis - Go Full Throttle Racing News

12 min readSep 21, 2024

21 September 2024
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News

BRISTOL, TN — A special Saturday edition of Go Full Throttle Racing News “Facts and Stats Friday” summary of data, model projections, and GFT artificial intelligence wizardry- this week pushed into a Saturday release! Why? Simple- so our AI models could ingest Friday evening Cup Series Practice and Qualifying data, then run scenarios overnight to make our Bristol Night Race AI predictions. But first, lets set the stage for one of the most anticipated races on the NASCAR calendar and who of the 16 Playoff drivers moves onto the Round of 12, and who is out of championship contention?

NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway
Saturday, September 21 at 7:30 p.m. ET
The Purse: $9,222,417
TV: USA, 7 p.m. ET
Radio: PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)

Distance: 266.5 miles (500 Laps)
— Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 125)
— Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 250)
— Final Stage (Ends on Lap 500)

Bristol Motor Speedway in Brostol, TN (Image Credit: bristolmotorspeedway.com)

Track Facts

Track Length: .533 Mile Concrete Oval
Banking: Turns vary from 24 to 28 degrees, frontstretch varies from 5 to 9 degrees, backstretch varies from 4–8 degrees
Frontstretch: 650 feet
Backstretch: 650 feet

Qualifying & Race Records
Qualifying: Chase Elliott, Chevrolet, 131.713 mph (14.568 sec.); April 7, 2019
Race: Charlie Glotzbach; Chevrolet, 101.074 mph (2:38:12); July 11, 1971

Track Records
Most Wins: 12 — Darrell Waltrip
Most Poles: 9 — Cale Yarborough, Mark Martin
Most Top Fives: 26 — Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip
Most Top 10s: 37 — Richard Petty

Cup Playoff contenders face Round of 16 elimination race at Bristol

Tensions are high, the point standings are tight, and once the stadium lights illuminate the ‘World’s Fastest Half-Mile’ expect nothing less than a spectacular showdown amongst the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs’ 16 drivers battling for the chance to move onto the Round of 12 and stay eligible for the 2024 Driver Championship.

With this weekend’s highly anticipated event serving as the elimination race for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Round of 16, a lot is on the line for the postseason contenders. Team Penske’s Joey Logano is the only driver that has locked himself into the Round of 12 by virtue of his Atlanta win leaving 11 spots still up for grabs on Saturday.

With a fast-paced short track like Bristol, anything can happen this weekend. Since inception of the elimination-style format to the Playoffs, the biggest point lead over the Round of 12 cutline after the second race of the Round of 16 of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs to miss advancing, was 14 points by Ryan Newman in 2019. And the largest point deficit to the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs Round of 12 cutline after the second race of the Round of 16 of the Playoffs to move on was 19 points by Bubba Wallace last season (2023).

Bristol Driver Ratings for the 16 Playoff Drivers

Qualifying Results — Alex Bowman earns Pole Position for Saturday’s Bass Pro Shop Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway

SEPTEMBER 20: Alex Bowman, driver of the #48 Ally Chevrolet, drives during practice for the NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 20, 2024 in Bristol, Tennessee. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

SEPTEMBER 20: Alex Bowman, driver of the #48 Ally Chevrolet, poses for photos after winning the pole award during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 20, 2024 in Bristol, Tennessee. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

The gladiators of the ‘Last Great Coliseum’ (Bristol)

A total of 44 different NASCAR Cup Series drivers have won at Bristol Motor Speedway, and 21 of the 44 have won multiple times.

This weekend six of the 44 NASCAR Cup Series Bristol Motor Speedway race winners are entered in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race, and four of the seven are Playoff drivers (Hamlin, Keselowski, Logano and Larson).

Rapid Rundown: NASCAR Cup Playoffs’ 16 heading to Bristol

Drivers are listed below by outlook seeding heading into Bristol Motor Speedway — Playoff Race 3 of 10:

Joey Logano (№22 Team Penske Ford)

Heads to Bristol ranked №1 in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,084 points, and a win at Atlanta Motor Speedway to earn a spot in the Round of 12.
Was eliminated in Playoffs’ first round last season, first to clinch in next round this season.
This is his 11th postseason appearance and 10th since the elimination-style format was introduced in 2014, and he has advanced to the Round of 12 in all 10 appearances (2024 ’23, ’22, ’21 ’20, ’19, ’18, ’16, ’15, ’14, ‘13).
Has made 28 series starts at Bristol posting two wins (2014, 2015), six top fives and 10 top 10s.
Finished 22nd at Bristol back in March (2024).

Christopher Bell (№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

Heads to Bristol ranked second in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,089 points (standings leader).
Up +46 points on the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is Bell’s fourth consecutive postseason appearance (2024, ’23, ’22, ’21).
Bell has advanced to the Round of 12 in all three of his previous Playoff appearances.
Has made six series starts at Bristol amassing two top fives and four top 10s.
Finished 10th at Bristol back in March (2024).

Austin Cindric (№2 Team Penske Ford)

Heads to Bristol ranked third in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,086 points.
Up +43 points on the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his second postseason appearance (2024, ‘22).
Has advanced to the Round of 12 in his only other appearance in the Playoffs.
Has made three series starts at Bristol posting a best finish of 20th (2022). His average finish is 27.6.
Finished 31st at Bristol back in March (2024).

Alex Bowman (№48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

Heads to Bristol ranked fourth in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,084 points.
Up +41 points from the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his sixth postseason appearance (2024, ’22, ’21 ’20, ’19, ‘18).
Bowman has advanced to the Round of 12 in all five of his previous Playoff appearances.
Has made 14 series starts at Bristol posting three top fives and four top 10s.
Finished fourth at Bristol back in March (2024).

Daniel Suarez (№99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet)

Heads to Bristol ranked fifth in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,079 points.
Up +36 points on the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his second postseason appearance (2024, ‘22).
Has advanced to the Round of 12 in his only other appearance in the Playoffs.
Has made 12 series starts at Bristol posting two top 10s.
Finished 18th at Bristol back in March (2024).

Tyler Reddick (№45 23XI Racing Toyota)

Heads to Bristol ranked sixth in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,073 points.
Up +30 points on the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his fourth consecutive postseason appearance (2024, ’23, ’22, ’21).
Reddick has only advanced to the Round of 12 in one of his three previous Playoff appearances (2023).
Has made six series starts at Bristol putting up just one top-five finish.
Finished 30th at Bristol back in March (2024).

Chase Elliott (№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

Heads to Bristol ranked seventh in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,073 points.
Up +30 points on the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his eighth postseason appearance (2024, ’22, ’21 ’20, ’19, ’18, ’17, ‘16).
Elliott has advanced to the Round of 12 in all seven of his previous Playoff appearances.
Has made 14 series starts at Bristol posting four top fives and eight top 10s.
Has second best average finish at Bristol among active drivers at 11.643.
Finished eighth at Bristol back in March (2024).

Ryan Blaney (№12 Team Penske Ford)

Heads to Bristol ranked eighth in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,072 points.
Up +29 points on the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his eighth consecutive postseason appearance (2024, ’23, ’22, ’21 ’20, ’19, ’18, ‘17).
Blaney has advanced to the Round of 12 in six of his seven previous Playoff appearances, the lone exception was 2020.
Has made 15 series starts at Bristol posting two top fives and five top 10s.
Finished 16th at Bristol back in March (2024).

Kyle Larson (№5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

Heads to Bristol ranked ninth in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,069 points.
Entered Playoffs as the №1 seed.
Up +26 points on the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his eighth postseason appearance (2024, ’23, ’22, ’21, ’19, ’18, ’17, ‘16).
Larson has advanced to the Round of 12 in six of his seven previous Playoff appearances, the lone exception was 2016.
Has made 16 series starts at Bristol posting one win (2021), six top fives and 11 top 10s.
Leads all active drivers in average finish at Bristol with a 11.625.
Finished fifth at Bristol back in March (2024).

William Byron (№24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)

Heads to Bristol ranked 10th in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,068 points.
Up +25 points on the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his sixth consecutive postseason appearance (2024, ’23, ’22, ’21 ’20, ‘19).
Byron has advanced to the Round of 12 in four of his five previous Playoff appearances, the lone exception was 2020.
Has made 10 series starts at Bristol posting two top fives and four top 10s.
Finished 35th at Bristol back in March (2024).

Chase Briscoe (№14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford)

Heads to Bristol ranked 11th in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,049 points.
Up +6 points on the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his second postseason appearance (2024, ‘22).
Has advanced to the Round of 12 in his only other appearance in the Playoffs.
Has made four series starts at Bristol posting a best finish of 13th earlier this season.
His average finish at Bristol is 16.7.

Ty Gibbs (№54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

Heads to Bristol ranked 12th in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,049 points.
Up +6 points on the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his first postseason appearance (2024).
Has made three series starts at Bristol posting one top-five and two top-10 finishes.
Finished ninth at Bristol back in March (2024).

Denny Hamlin (№11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

Heads to Bristol ranked 13th in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,043 points.
Back -6 points from the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his 18th postseason appearance — most all-time (2024, ’23, ’22, ’21, ’20, ’19, ’18, ’17, ’16, ’15, ’14, ’12, ’11, ’10, ’09, ’08, ’07, ‘06).
This is his 11th postseason appearance since the elimination-style format was introduced in 2014, and he has advanced to the Round of 12 in all previous 10 appearances in this format.
Has made 34 series starts at Bristol posting four wins (2012, 2019, 2023, 2024), 11 top fives and 18 top 10s.
Won at Bristol back in March (2024).
Looks to become fifth driver all-time to win three or more consecutive Cup Series races at Bristol Motor Speedway; joining Fred Lorenzen, Darrell Waltrip, Cale Yarborough and Kurt Busch.

Brad Keselowski (№6 RFK Racing Ford)

Heads to Bristol ranked 13th in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,037 points.
Back -12 points from the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his 12th postseason appearance (2024 ’23, ’21 ’20, ’19, ’18, ’17, ’16, ’15, ’14, ’12, ‘11).
This is his 10th postseason appearance since the elimination-style format was introduced in 2014, and he has advanced to the Round of 12 in all nine of his previous appearances in this format.
Has made 26 series starts at Bristol posting three wins (2011, 2012, 2020), seven top fives and 10 top 10s.
Finished third at Bristol back in March (2024).

Martin Truex Jr. (№19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)

Heads to Bristol ranked 15th in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,035 points.
Back -14 points from the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his 11th postseason appearance (2024, ’23, ’21 ’20, ’19, ’18, ’17, ’16, ’15, ’12, ‘07).
This is his ninth postseason appearance since the elimination-style format was introduced in 2014, and he has advanced to the Round of 12 in all eight previous appearances in this format.
Has made 34 series starts at Bristol posting three top fives and five top 10s.
Finished runner-up at Bristol back in March (2024).

Harrison Burton (№21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford)

Heads to Bristol ranked 16th in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs outlook with 2,029 points.
Back -20 points from the Round of 12 cutoff.
This is his first postseason appearance (2024).
Has made three series starts at Bristol posting a best finish of 16th (2022).
His average finish at Bristol is 25.3.
Finished 32nd at Bristol back in March (2024).

GFT AI Race Prediction Model Picks for Bristol Night Race (after Practice and Qualifying data was ingested):

Clinch Scenarios: Last chance to make the Playoffs’ Round of 12

This weekend’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway will bring the first round of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs to a close and four drivers will be eliminated from the postseason bringing the 16-driver field down to 12. With only Team Penske’s Joey Logano locked-in to the next round, which leaves 11 positions still up for grabs this weekend at the ‘World’s Fastest Half-Mile’.

Already Clinched

The following driver has clinched a spot in the 12-driver field of the next round: Joey Logano.

Can Clinch Via Points

If there is a repeat winner or a win by a driver who cannot advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the 12th winless driver in the standings. The same point requirements listed below would hold true if a new win comes from among Christopher Bell, Austin Cindric, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, William Byron, Chase Briscoe or Ty Gibbs.

· Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 10 points

· Austin Cindric: Would clinch with 13 points

· Alex Bowman: Would clinch with 15 points

· Daniel Suarez: Would clinch with 19 points

· Tyler Reddick: Would clinch with 26 points

· Chase Elliott: Would clinch with 26 points

· Ryan Blaney: Would clinch with 27 points

· Kyle Larson: Would clinch with 30 points

· William Byron: Would clinch with 31 points

· Chase Briscoe: Would clinch with 50 points

· Ty Gibbs: Would clinch with 50 points

· Denny Hamlin: Could only clinch with help

· Brad Keselowski: Could only clinch with help

· Martin Truex Jr.: Could only clinch with help

· Harrison Burton: Could only clinch with help

If there is a new winner from Denny Hamlin or another winless driver lower in the standings but still eligible to advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the 11th winless driver in the standings.

· Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 14 points

· Austin Cindric: Would clinch with 17 points

· Alex Bowman: Would clinch with 19 points

· Daniel Suarez: Would clinch with 23 points

· Tyler Reddick: Would clinch with 30 points

· Chase Elliott: Would clinch with 30 points

· Ryan Blaney: Would clinch with 31 points

· Kyle Larson: Would clinch with 34 points

· William Byron: Would clinch with 35 points

· Chase Briscoe: Would clinch with 54 points

· Ty Gibbs: Would clinch with 54 points