GFT Facts and Stats Friday: Data and Race Predictions for the Wurth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway
2 May 2025
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News
FORT WORTH, TEXAS — This weekend marks the 45th running of a NASCAR Cup Series race at Texas Motor Speedway, the 13th since the reconfiguration and the third scheduled at 400 miles (267 laps). The last eight Cup Series races at Texas Motor Speedway were won by eight different drivers.
A total of 24 drivers have won a Cup Series race at Texas, and eight of the 24 are active this weekend: Kyle Busch (2013, 2016, 2018, 2020), Denny Hamlin (2010 sweep, 2019), Joey Logano (2014), Austin Dillon (2020), Kyle Larson (2021), Tyler Reddick (2022), William Byron (2023) and Chase Elliott (2024).
Chase Elliott’s most recent win came at Texas last April, his current 37 race winless streak is his second longest of his career behind the 42 race winless streak he ended at Texas last year.
NASCAR Cup Series Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Texas Motor Speedway — 1.5 Mile Asphalt Oval
Sunday, May 4 at 3:30 p.m. ET
The Purse: $11,055,250
TV: FS1, 2 p.m. ET
Radio: PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Distance: 400.5 miles (267 Laps)
— Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 80)
— Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 165)
— Final Stage (Ends on Lap 267)
Track Facts
Track Length: 1.5-Miles
Race Length: 500 Miles (334 Laps)
Grandstand Seating Capacity: 122,000+
First Race: April 6, 1997 — Interstate Batteries 500
Banking in Corners 1 and 2: 20 degrees
Banking in Corners 3 and 4: 24 degrees
Banking on Frontstretch: 5 degrees
Banking on Backstretch: 5 degrees
Frontstretch: 2,250 feet
Backstretch: 1,330 feet
Qualifying & Race Records
Qualifying: Kurt Busch, Ford, 200.919 mph, (26.877); Nov. 3, 2017
Race: Greg Biffle, Ford, 160.577 mph (3:07:12); Nov. 14, 2012
Track Records
Most Wins: 7 — Jimmie Johnson
Most Poles: 3 — Kurt Busch
Most Top Fives: 16 — Jimmie Johnson
Most Top 10s: 25 — Kevin Harvick
Winning Car Owners
Rick Hendrick 12
Jack Roush 9
Joe Gibbs 9
Tony Stewart 4
Roger Penske 3
Richard Childress 3
NASCAR Cup Series
Texas Storylines and Insights:
Brad Keselowski is looking for his first top-10 finish of 2025, he had four top-fives and five top-10s after 10 races in 2024.
Chase Briscoe’s average finish of 9.0 at Texas is the best all-time by any driver, Tyler Reddick ranks second all-time at 9.3.
TREND: Chevrolet won the last four Texas races, the longest streak ever by a make at the track.
TREND: Hendrick Motorsports drivers won three of the last four Texas races with three different drivers: Chase Elliott 4/24, William Byron 9/23, Kyle Larson 10/21.
The 16 cautions at Texas last April tied the track record for the most cautions set in 9/22 which was a 500 mile race compared to last year’s 400 mile race (it was the most ever cautions in a 400 mile race on a 1.5 mile track).
The final green flag stretch was six laps or less in three of the last four Texas races.
Denny Hamlin leads all drivers in laps run in the top-five and the top-10 at Texas in the Next Gen car.
William Byron leads all drivers in points earned at Texas in the Next Gen car.
The last six races on 1.5 mile tracks were each won by a different driver.
Kyle Larson, with three, is the only repeat winner in the last nine races on 1.5 mile tracks.
The pass for the win came in the final seven laps in four of the last seven races on 1.5 mile tracks.
Kyle Larson’s nine wins on 1.5 mile tracks rank fifth among active drivers, all nine came in his 31 starts on them with Hendrick Motorsports (29% win percentage on them with Hendrick).
Alex Bowman finished top-10 in the last seven races on 1.5 mile tracks, the longest active streak and his career longest streak of top-10s on 1.5 mile tracks.
Ryan Blaney finished in the top-10 in only two of the last eight races on 1.5 mile tracks with finishes of 32nd or worse in five of them.
Kyle Busch finished outside the top-10 in the last six races on 1.5 mile tracks, he is on a 10 race streak without a top-five finish on 1.5 mile tracks.
Three of the top-four in points are Hendrick drivers (Byron-1st, Larson-2nd, Elliott-3rd) with all four drivers ranking in the top-9 (Bowman 9th).
Kyle Larson leads all Cup drivers with 503 laps led in 2025, William Byron ranks second in 2025 laps led with 364.
Hendrick Motorsports drivers won five of the last six stages.
Chase Elliott is the only driver to finish inside the top-20 in all 10 races this season.
Denny Hamlin is the only driver to finish on the lead lap in all 10 races in 2025, his current streak of 21 straight lead lap finishes is the longest active streak and his second longest streak behind 23 between 2022 and 2023.
William Byron’s average start of 10.3 is the best of all drivers in 2025.
William Byron’s average finish of 8.5 in 2025 leads all drivers and is the best by a Hendrick driver through 10 races since Jimmie Johnson in 2013 with 7.0.
Hendrick Motorsports is the only team with at least one car finishing in the top-five in all 10 races in 2025, no other team had at least one car finish top-10 in all 10 races this year.
2024 NASCAR Cup Champion Joey Logano’s 284 laps led in 2025 are the most for a driver through the first 10 races without a top-five finish since 2016 (Matt Kenseth — 347).
Joey Logano is the first defending champion without a top-five finish through the season’s first 10 races.
Ford’s nine top-fives and 23 top-10s are their fewest since 2016 (8 and 18, respectively).
Four of the six drivers with at least six top-10 finish in 2025 drive for Hendrick Motorsports: Larson and Byron-7, Bowman, Elliott, Bell and Hamlin-6.
Ryan Blaney ranks third in 2025 in stage points earned (92), 33% of his total points this season came from stages.
Ryan Blaney is first in speed at 1.5 mile tracks this year, but DNF in both races.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. currently sits 18th in the playoff standings despite ranking 32nd in passing, 31st in speed, and having the 35th ranked pit crew this season.
Bubba Wallace’s pit crew has gained a net 37 spots on four tire stops this season, most of all teams.
DATA — GFT NASCAR AI DRIVER RANKINGS
DATA FEEDS
NASCAR CUP SERIES DRIVER AND PLAYOFF STANDINGS
TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY-SPECIFIC LOOP DATA STATISTICS
(Drivers are listed in alphabetical order; Loop Data stats in the below section are from 2005-Present)
Christopher Bell
(№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Three top fives, three top 10s
· Average Finish of 13.667, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 18.302, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 76.8, 13th-best
· 809 Laps in the Top 15 (43.1%), 22nd-most
Ryan Blaney
(№12 Team Penske Ford)
· Four top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 17.375, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.990, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 92.9, fifth-best
· 3,556 Laps in the Top 15 (68.6%), seventh-most
Chase Briscoe
(№19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One top five, three top 10s
· Average Finish of 9.000, series-best
· Average Running Position of 15.019, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 76.5, 14th-best
· 669 Laps in the Top 15 (55.2%), 24th-most
Kyle Busch
(№8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· Four wins, 14 top fives, 19 top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 12.235, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.189, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.8, second-best
· 7,771 Laps in the Top 15 (69.3%), second-most
William Byron
(№24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, three top fives, six top 10s
· Average Finish of 11.200, third-best
· Average Running Position of 11.099, series-best
· Driver Rating of 95.1, fourth-best
· 2,434 Laps in the Top 15 (75.6%), 12th-most
Chase Elliott
(№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, three top fives, seven top 10s
· Average Finish of 12.214, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.515, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.2, seventh-best
· 3,345 Laps in the Top 15 (74.1%), ninth-most
Denny Hamlin
(№11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Three wins, eight top fives, 16 top 10s
· Average Finish of 13.824, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.670, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.0, ninth-best
· 7,379 Laps in the Top 15 (65.8%), fourth-most
Erik Jones
(№43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota)
· Three top fives, seven top 10s
· Average Finish of 12.308, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.183, third-best
· Driver Rating of 88.6, 11th-best
· 2,932 Laps in the Top 15 (69.5%), 10th-most
Brad Keselowski
(№6 RFK Racing Ford)
· Seven top fives, 14 top 10s; two poles
· Average Finish of 15.276, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.512, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.1, 12th-best
· 5,409 Laps in the Top 15 (56.7%), sixth-most
Kyle Larson
(№5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, four top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 18.765, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.632, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.0, eighth-best
· 3,547 Laps in the Top 15 (64.2%), eighth-most
Joey Logano
(№22 Team Penske Ford)
· One win, 12 top fives, 15 top 10s
· Average Finish of 13.759, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.470, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 89.1, 10th-best
· 5,745 Laps in the Top 15 (60.2%), fifth-most
Tyler Reddick
(№45 23XI Racing Toyota)
· One win, three top fives, four top 10s
· Average Finish of 9.333, second-best
· Average Running Position of 11.191, second-best
· Driver Rating of 100.5, series-best
· 1,349 Laps in the Top 15 (71.8%), third-most
TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY DRIVER RATINGS
2025 TOP 16 IN THE CUP DRIVER STANDINGS AT TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
GFT BOX SCORES
A Talladega Disaster for GFT AI Race Prediction Model
Ranking falls from TOP 5% down to 11.24%
The GFT AI Race Prediction Model went from a season high of 229 points for Bristol, improving our ranking in the #TMDNASCAR league of NASCAR Fantasy LIVE to 201, all the way down to a record low score of 56 points and 596 ranking. That’s drafting tracks for you! 4 out of 5 picks for Talladega get crashed or DQed!!
This week, the GFT AI Race Prediction Models like Tyler Reddick with the best Driver Rating at Texas (100.5) but have noted the strong trends for Hendrick Motorsports (Hendrick Motorsports drivers won three of the last four Texas races with three different drivers: Chase Elliott 4/24, William Byron 9/23, Kyle Larson 10/21). Thus, the initial GFT AI NASCAR Race Prediction Model output for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Wurth 400 at Texas Motor Speedway delivers 3 Hendrick Chevrolets and 3 Toyotas.
The GFT initial FAST FIVE are Larson, Byron, Reddick, Hamlin, and last year’s winner Chase Elliott. The model also recommends Christopher Bell as our garage pick. Among active drivers, Kyle Busch has the most wins (4) at Texas Motor Speedway.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: The GFT models will update after Cup Series practice and qualifying on Saturday when the data is ingested into the models and the models rerun prediction scenarios overnight. We will then publish the FINAL race prediction on our X (formerly Twitter) channel on Sunday, usually 2 hours before the Green flag. If you want our final and best predictions, follow us at https://x.com/BobFullThrottle and check the feed on Sunday. Then set your #NASCARFantasyLIVE lineup and place your bets.
