GFT Facts and Stats Friday: Data and Race Predictions for the Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway
21 March 2025
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News
HOMESTEAD, FL —
NASCAR Cup Series Straight Talk Wireless 400
Homestead-Miami Speedway — 1.5 Mile Asphalt Oval
Sunday, March 23 at 3 p.m. ET
The Purse: $11,055,250
TV: FS1 & FOX Deportes, 1:30 p.m. ET
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Distance: 400 miles (267 Laps)
— Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 80)
— Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 165)
— Final Stage (Ends on Lap 267)
Track Facts:
Track Length: 1.5 Miles
Race Length: 400 Miles (267 laps)
Grandstand Seating Capacity: 47,000
First Race: Nov. 14, 1999 — Pennzoil 400
Banking in Corners: 18–20 degrees (variable)
Banking on Straights: 4 degrees
Frontstretch: 1,760 feet
Backstretch: 1,760 feet
Qualifying & Race Records
Qualifying: Brad Keselowski, Ford, 181.238 mph (29.795 secs.); Nov. 14, 2014 (Round 1 of 3)
Race: Kyle Busch, Toyota, 142.654 mph (2:48:47); Nov. 17, 2019
Track Records
Most Wins: 3 — Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin
Most Poles: 3 — Denny Hamlin
Most Top Fives: 12 — Kevin Harvick
Most Top 10s: 19 — Kevin Harvick
Most Lead Changes: 33–10/27/24
STORYLINES FOR HOMESTEAD-MAIMI SPEEDWAY
· This weekend marks the 27th running of a NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway (1999–2025).
· Seven different drivers won the last seven 1.5-mile Cup Series races.
· Toyota won the pole for nine of the last 12 races on 1.5-mile tracks, including each of the last two races at Miami.
· Nine different drivers have won the first 10 stages of 2025; Kyle Larson is the only repeat stage winner this season.
· Joey Logano earned the fourth most stage points in 2025 (50), main reason he’s eighth in points without a top-10 finish. Logano’s best finish this season is 12th at Atlanta.
· Bubba Wallace earned 43 more stage points through five races in 2025 compared to 2024, he missed the Playoffs by 27 points in 2024
· William Byron leads the point standings by 29 points over second place Christopher Bell following Las Vegas.
· William Byron is the only driver to lead in every race this season, it is the second time in the last four seasons that Byron led in each of the first five races (2022).
· William Byron led in the last seven races, tied for his longest streak of races led set in 2019.
· Kyle Larson’s 12 stage wins on 1.5-mile tracks in the Next Gen car lead all drivers, no other driver has more than five.
· Kyle Larson’s 1,286 laps led on 1.5-mile tracks in the Next Gen car, nearly double the next closest driver (Bell — 614).
· The driver leading the most laps won six of the last seven Homestead-Miami Speedway Cup Series races.
· The last three Miami races were held in October, the last Spring race at Miami was in 2021.
· Only one of the last 18 races at Homestead-Miami ended in overtime. In total, three Cup races at Homestead-Miami have ended in overtime: 2004, 2006, 2016.
· A total of 18 Cup drivers have won at Homestead-Miami. This weekend, seven of the 18 are active, led by Denny Hamlin with three wins:
Active Homestead Race Winners
· Hendrick Motorsports drivers led 54% of the laps raced at Homestead-Miami in the Next Gen car (434 of 801).
· Ryan Blaney finished runner-up in the last two races at Homestead-Miami, he is the only driver to finish runner-up at Homestead-Miami more than once without a win.
· Kyle Larson has led 626 laps at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the most of all Cup Series drivers.
· Kyle Larson’s only Homestead-Miami win came in 2022 after leading 199 of the 267 laps, he finished 13th last year after spinning from second on Lap 255 and finished 34th in 2023 after hitting the sand barrels coming to pit road on Lap 213 after leading 96 laps prior.
· AJ Allmendinger and Christopher Bell have the best average finish at Miami in the NextGen car (5.3).
· The pass for the win came in the final six laps in three of the last six 1.5-mile races including two last lap passes.
· The NASCAR Cup Series races at Homestead-Miami Speedway have had a last lap pass for the lead to win the race twice: 2003 (Bobby Labonte passed Bill Elliott) and 2024 (Tyler Reddick passed Ryan Blaney).
· The 33 lead changes at Homestead-Miami last year set a new track record, each of the last three laps was led by a different driver.
· A stage winner went on to win once this season (Christopher Bell — stage 2 at Phoenix), the fewest ever through five races.
· Berry became the first driver to win their first career Cup race at Phoenix last weekend, no driver has won their first career Cup race at Homestead-Miami.
· Joey Logano’s 247 laps led in 2025 is the most ever through five races by a driver without a top-10 finish (in those five races)
· Joey Logano is the first defending champion to fail to earn a top-10 finish in the first five races of the following season
· Ty Gibbs earned 37 fewer stage points in 2025 through five races compared to 2024, the biggest decline among all drivers.
· Seven full-time drivers don’t have stage points this season, two are JGR drivers (T. Gibbs and C. Briscoe).
· Brad Keselowski will become the 17th driver to make 550 consecutive Cup starts this weekend, and second among active drivers (Joey Logano — 581)
· Justin Haley and Chase Briscoe will both be making their 150th career NASCAR Cup Series starts this weekend at Homestead-Miami.
DATA — GFT NASCAR AI DRIVER RANKINGS
With the win at LVMS, Josh Berry moves up to P9 in the GFT AI Driver Rankings. William Byron held onto the top spot with a 4th place finish and stage points.
DATA FEEDS
NASCAR CUP SERIES DRIVER AND PLAYOFF STANDINGS
HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY-SPECIFIC STATISTICS
(Drivers are listed in alphabetical order; Loop Data stats in the below section are from 2005-Present)
Christopher Bell
(№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One win, two top fives, three top 10s
· Average Finish of 8.800, series-best
· Average Running Position of 12.528, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 88.4, 11th-best
· 877 Laps in the Top 15 (65.7%), 14th-most
Ryan Blaney
(№12 Team Penske Ford)
· Three top fives, three top 10s
· Average Finish of 15.300, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.589, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.4, 12th-best
· 1,803 Laps in the Top 15 (67.5%), 10th-most
Kyle Busch
(№8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· Two wins, five top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average Finish of 15.950, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 12.941, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 95.1, seventh-best
· 3,730 Laps in the Top 15 (69.8%), third-most
William Byron
(№24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, two top fives, four top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 13.571, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.269, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 100.6, fourth-best
· 1,407 Laps in the Top 15 (75.3%), 11th-most
Austin Dillon
(№3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· One top five, four top 10s
· Average Finish of 12.636, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.936, 14th-best
· Driver Rating of 83.6, 14th-best
· 1,943 Laps in the Top 15 (66.1%), eighth-most
Chase Elliott
(№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Three top fives, four top 10s
· Average Finish of 9.778, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.206, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 94.3, eighth-best
· 1,879 Laps in the Top 15 (78.2%), ninth-most
Denny Hamlin
(№11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Three wins, six top fives, 13 top 10s; three poles
· Average Finish of 10.500, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.718, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 99.1, fifth-best
· 4,051 Laps in the Top 15 (75.8%), second-most
Carson Hocevar
(№77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One top 10
· Average Finish of 9.000, second-best
· Average Running Position of 9.787, third-best
· Driver Rating of 96.9, sixth-best
· 218 Laps in the Top 15 (81.6%), 26th-most
Brad Keselowski
(№6 RFK Racing Ford)
· Four top fives, seven top 10s
· Average Finish of 14.647, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.376, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.3, 10th-best
· 3,135 Laps in the Top 15 (69.1%), fourth-most
Kyle Larson
(№5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, five top fives, five top 10s
· Average Finish of 13.000, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 8.508, second-best
· Driver Rating of 110.6, series-best
· 2,342 Laps in the Top 15 (79.7%), seventh-most
Joey Logano
(№22 Team Penske Ford)
· One win, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 15.375, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.201, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.9, 13th-best
· 2,724 Laps in the Top 15 (63.7%), sixth-most
Tyler Reddick
(№45 23XI Racing Toyota)
· One win, four top fives, four top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 9.000, third-best
· Average Running Position of 9.907, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 104.1, third-best
· 1,018 Laps in the Top 15 (76.3%), 13th-most
INITIAL GFT AI RACE PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR HOMESTEAD-MIAMI
Kyle Larson emerges as the favorite from the initial GFT AI NASCAR Race Prediction Model output for Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Joining Kyle Larson in the GFT initial FAST FIVE are Blaney, Hamlin, Reddick, and Bell, and we have Chase Elliott as our garage pick. Among active drivers, Hamlin has 3 wins at Homestead-Miami.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: The GFT models will update after Cup Series practice and qualifying on Saturday. Then that data is ingested into the models and the models rerun prediction scenarios overnight. We will then publish the FINAL race prediction on our X (formerly Twitter) channel on Sunday, usually 2 hours before the Green flag. If you want our final and best predictions, follow us at https://x.com/BobFullThrottle
