GFT Facts and Stats Friday: Data and Race Predictions for the Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway
7 March 2025
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News
AVONDALE, AZ — This weekend will be the 58th running of a NASCAR Cup Series race at Phoenix Raceway as Go Full Throttle Racing News (based here in Arizona) brings you our weekly ‘Facts and Stats Friday” preview of the Shriners Children’s 500.
Cool and Wet Weather In The Desert
Our arrival at Phoenix Raceway included cool temperatures, light rain and wind, however, the track crew tells me the rain will pass by 1pm local time and track drying will begin. Officials do not expect much if any inturuption in the ARCA Series schedule for the General Tire 150 that is to start at 6pm local time.
NASCAR Cup Series Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway
Sunday, March 9 with the command to start engines at 3:30 p.m. ET
The Purse: $11,055,250
TV: FS1 & FOX Deportes, 2 p.m. ET
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Track Size: 1-mile
Banking/Turn 1 & 2: 9 degrees
Banking/Turn 3 & 4: 11 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 3 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 9 degrees
Distance: 312 miles (312 Laps);
— Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 60)
— Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 185)
— Final Stage (Ends on Lap 312)
Storylines we are following for the Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway
- Action-packed opening three races of the Cup Series- Can Phoenix keep the high-intensity action going? There have been 125 lead changes so far in 2025, the most ever for the first three races of a NASCAR Cup season.
- Christopher Bell is attempting to become the first driver to win three straight races with the NextGen car. He won Phoenix last Spring. Last driver to win three straight in the Cup Series was Kyle Larson in 2021.
- Christopher Bell is the third driver in history to finish 31st or worse in the season-opening race, then win the next two events (Jimmie Johnson — 2010, Kevin Harvick — 2018)
- Michael McDowell has the fifth-best average finish in 2025 (11.7) yet has not finished inside the top 10. But he is the only driver to finish top 15 in each race this season.
- Katherine Legge will become the eighth female driver to run a NASCAR race in the Modern Era (1972–2025), the 17th overall and the first to drive the Next Gen car.
- Five multi car teams have yet to finish top five this season: Trackhouse Racing, Front Row Motorsports, Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, Kaulig Racing, and Rick Ware Racing.
DATA — GFT NASCAR AI DRIVER RANKINGS
DATA — ACTIVE DRIVER WINS AT PHOENIX RACEWAY
Joey Logano leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in wins at Phoenix Raceway with four (2016, 2020, 2022, 2024).
DATA — NASCAR CUP SERIES DRIVER AND PLAYOFF STANDINGS
DATA — DRIVER RATINGS FOR PHOENIX RACEWAY
TOP 12 IN PHOENIX RACEWAY-SPECIFIC STATISTICS
(Drivers are listed in alphabetical order; Loop Data stats in the below section are from 2005-Present)
Christopher Bell
(№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One win, two top fives, six top 10s
· Average Finish of 14.300, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.261, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.1, 11th-best
· 1,974 Laps in the Top 15 (63.1%), 12th-most
Ryan Blaney
(№12 Team Penske Ford)
· Nine top fives, 13 top 10s; three poles
· Average Finish of 10.444, series-best
· Average Running Position of 9.180, second-best
· Driver Rating of 100.2, third-best
· 4,779 Laps in the Top 15 (84.7%), series-most
Chase Briscoe
(№19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One win, two top fives, four top 10s
· Average Finish of 16.375, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.823, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 79.6, 13th-best
· 1,293 Laps in the Top 15 (51.7%), 13th-most
Kyle Busch
(№8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· Three wins, 12 top fives, 26 top 10s; four poles
· Average Finish of 11.487, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.966, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 99.1, fourth-best
· 9,573 Laps in the Top 15 (78.6%), fourth-most
William Byron
(№24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, three top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 11.143, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 9.564, third-best
· Driver Rating of 95.2, seventh-best
· 3,534 Laps in the Top 15 (80.7%), second-most
Chase Elliott
(№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 12.353, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 9.142, series-best
· Driver Rating of 103.2, series-best
· 4,222 Laps in the Top 15 (79.3%), third-most
Denny Hamlin
(№11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Two wins, 16 top fives, 22 top 10s; three poles
· Average Finish of 10.821, second-best
· Average Running Position of 10.674, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.5, fifth-best
· 9,244 Laps in the Top 15 (75.9%), seventh-most
Erik Jones
(№43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota)
· One top five, four top 10s
· Average Finish of 18.700, 14th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.489, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 74.3, 14th-best
· 2,865 Laps in the Top 15 (54.9%), 11th-most
Brad Keselowski
(№6 RFK Racing Ford)
· Nine top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 13.645, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.459, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 91.2, ninth-best
· 6,654 Laps in the Top 15 (68.7%), 10th-most
Kyle Larson
(№5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, nine top fives, 13 top 10s; two poles
· Average Finish of 11.048, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.502, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.6, sixth-best
· 4,944 Laps in the Top 15 (76.3%), sixth-most
Joey Logano
(№22 Team Penske Ford)
· Four wins, nine top fives, 17 top 10s; two poles
· Average Finish of 13.094, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.552, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 94.7, eighth-best
· 7,080 Laps in the Top 15 (70.9%), eighth-most
Tyler Reddick
(№45 23XI Racing Toyota)
· Two top fives, four top 10s
· Average Finish of 16.700, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 12.605, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 84.5, 12th-best
· 2,066 Laps in the Top 15 (66.0%), 11th-most
2024 FLASHBACK: GFT Interview with RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher who finished 2nd in this race one year ago.
INITIAL GFT AI RACE PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR PHOENIX
No clear favorite emerges from the initial GFT AI NASCAR Race Prediction Model output for Sunday’s Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway. Joey Logano has 4 wins at Phoenix Raceway, while Chase Elliott has only 1 win, but the best overall Driver Ranking at 103.2, with Blaney at 100.2, Byron at 95.2, then Logano at 94.7.
Others to watch:
Kyle Larson — One win, nine top fives, 13 top 10s; two poles
Christopher Bell — One win, two top fives, six top 10s
Chris Buescher — Two Top fives (including 2nd here in Phoenix one year ago), and four top 10s
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: The GFT models will update after Cup Series practice and qualifying on Saturday. Then that data is ingested into the models and the models rerun prediction scenarios overnight. We will then publish the FINAL race prediction on our X (formerly Twitter) channel on Sunday, usually 2 hours before the Green flag. If you want our final and best predictions, follow us at https://x.com/BobFullThrottle
