GFT Facts and Stats Friday: Data and Race Predictions for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
14 March 2025
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News
LAS VEGAS, NV — It’s been a great, but cool and rainy, week in Las Vegas. Last night many of us were at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway Dirt Track for the season opener of High Limit Racing sprint car race 1 of 2 here this week. Unfortunately, the rain returned just as qualifying wrapped up and the program was postponed until after tonight’s NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race. 3 NASCAR Cup regulars are racing in Sprint cars — Larson, Bell, and Ty Gibbs. Young gun NASCAR star Corey Day is also in the High Limit Racing field. All making for an exciting start to the NASCAR weekend here in what Danny Ocean called “America’s playground” in Oceans 11.
2025 NASCAR Cup Series Race 5 — Las Vegas
Pennzoil 400 Presented by Jiffy Lube at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Track Length: 1.5 Mile Asphalt Oval
Sunday, March 16 at 3:30 p.m. ET (12:30 p.m. local/Pacific Time)
The Purse: $11,055,250
TV: FS1, 2 p.m. ET
Radio: PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Distance: 400 miles (267 Laps)
— Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 80)
— Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 165)
— Final Stage (Ends on Lap 267)
Storylines we are following for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
This weekend marks the 35th running of a NASCAR Cup Series race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (1998–2025).
· Christopher Bell is the fourth driver to win three of the first four races of the season, the only driver to win four of the first five races was Bill Elliott in 1992.
· Christopher Bell is the first driver to win three straight races in the Next Gen car and the first since Kyle Larson three consecutive races in 2021. The last to win four straight races was Jimmie Johnson in 2007.
· In NASCAR’s modern era (from 1972 to present), only eight drivers — Cale Yarborough (1976), Darrell Waltrip (1981), Dale Earnhardt Sr. (1987), Harry Gant (1991), Bill Elliott (1992), Mark Martin (1993), Jeff Gordon (1998), and Jimmie Johnson (2007) — have won four straight races.
· Christopher Bell, from Norman, Oklahoma, has given Joe Gibbs Racing it’s last five Cup wins.
· Christopher Bell’s three wins in 2025 are tied for his most in a season (2022, 2024).
· Christopher Bell won the pole for three of the last five 1.5-mile races; including the most recent Las Vegas race
The “Dirt Bros”
Flashback to last week in the Media Center after his win at Phoenix Raceway … Question from NASCAR reporter @Jonathan_Fjeld —
“Has racing dirt helped?”
CBell’s answer:
“Yes, it helped a lot. I should go race more dirt.”
DATA — GFT NASCAR AI DRIVER RANKINGS
With the win at Phoenix, C Bell jumps 1 spot in our AI ranking model to P2, and William Byron, who finished 6th at Phoenix, holds onto P1 again this week after collecting the Pole, winning Stage 1, and grabbing 3rd in Stage 2. The biggest mover last week was Josh Berry who moved up 11 spots to P13 for Wood Brothers Racing.
DATA FEEDS
ACTIVE DRIVER WINS AT LV MOTOR SPEEDWAY
A total of 18 different drivers have won in the Cup Series at Las Vegas, and this weekend eight of 18 are active; led by Joey Logano with four wins.
NASCAR CUP SERIES DRIVER AND PLAYOFF STANDINGS
DRIVER RATINGS FOR LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
TOP 12 IN LAS VEGAS-SPECIFIC STATISTICS
(Drivers are listed in alphabetical order; Loop Data stats in the below section are from 2005-Present)
Christopher Bell
(№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Three top fives, five top 10s; three poles
· Average Finish of 17.400, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.023, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.1, 11th-best
· 1,548 Laps in the Top 15 (57.7%), 13th-most
Ryan Blaney
(№12 Team Penske Ford)
· Six top fives, ten top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 12.647, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 11.621, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 94.5, seventh-best
· 3,326 Laps in the Top 15 (73.0%), sixth-most
Alex Bowman
(№48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, four top fives, five top 10s
· Average Finish of 17.400, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.146, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 84.0, 13th-best
· 2,639 Laps in the Top 15 (65.6%), 10th-most
Kyle Busch
(№8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· One win, 12 top fives, 15 top 10s; two poles
· Average Finish of 10.154, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.324, third-best
· Driver Rating of 99.3, third-best
· 5,451 Laps in the Top 15 (78.1%), second-most
William Byron
(№24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, three top fives, seven top 10s
· Average Finish of 14.286, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.327, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.3, sixth-best
· 2,779 Laps in the Top 15 (74.0%), fifth-most
Ross Chastain
(№1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet)
· Four top fives, five top 10s
· Average Finish of 16.846, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 18.322, 16th-best
· Driver Rating of 76.1, 14th-best
· 1,520 Laps in the Top 15 (43.6%), 16th-most
Chase Elliott
(№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Three top fives, five top 10s
· Average Finish of 19.600, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 12.430, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.3, 10th-best
· 2,917 Laps in the Top 15 (72.6%), seventh-most
Denny Hamlin
(№11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One win, six top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average Finish of 12.308, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.255, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 91.4, eighth-best
· 4,606 Laps in the Top 15 (66.0%), ninth-most
Brad Keselowski
(№6 RFK Racing Ford)
· Three wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 12.652, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.859, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 89.4, ninth-best
· 3,881 Laps in the Top 15 (62.8%), 11th-most
Kyle Larson
(№5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Three wins, eight top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average Finish of 9.412, series-best
· Average Running Position of 10.340, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 104.6, series-best
· 3,462 Laps in the Top 15 (76.0%), fourth-most
Joey Logano
(№22 Team Penske Ford)
· Four wins, eight top fives, 14 top 10s; three poles
· Average Finish of 9.522, second-best
· Average Running Position of 9.935, series-best
· Driver Rating of 100.5, second-best
· 5,038 Laps in the Top 15 (81.6%), series-most
Tyler Reddick
(№45 23XI Racing Toyota)
· One top five, five top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 15.700, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.847, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 84.3, 12th-best
· 1,668 Laps in the Top 15 (62.2%), 12th-most
INITIAL GFT AI RACE PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR PHOENIX
Kyle Larson emerges as the favorite from the initial GFT AI NASCAR Race Prediction Model output for Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Joining Kyle Larson in the GFT initial FAST FIVE is Hamlin, Busch, Logano, Bell, and we have Byron as our garage pick. Among active drivers, Joey Logano has 4 wins at LV Motor Speedway while Larson and Brad K each have 3.
Others to watch:
Ryan Blaney has 6 top 5s and a driver rating of 94.5
Chase Elliott has 3 top 5s and 5 Top 10s with a driver rating of 89.3
Tyler Reddick has a Pole, 5 Top 10s and a driver rating of 84.3
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: The GFT models will update after Cup Series practice and qualifying on Saturday. Then that data is ingested into the models and the models rerun prediction scenarios overnight. We will then publish the FINAL race prediction on our X (formerly Twitter) channel on Sunday, usually 2 hours before the Green flag. If you want our final and best predictions, follow us at https://x.com/BobFullThrottle
