GFT Facts and Stats Friday: Data and Race Predictions for the Grant Park 165 Chicago Street Course
4 July 2025
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News
CHICAGO, IL — This weekend marks the third running of a NASCAR Cup Series race at the Chicago Street Course (2023–2025). Both Chicago winners got their first win of the season: Shane van Gisbergen (’23), Alex Bowman (’24). Ty Gibbs, Michael McDowell and Kyle Busch are the only drivers to finish top-10 in both races in Chicago.
Hendrick Motorsports leads all teams on the Chicago Street Course with three top-fives and four top-10s, they also won the pole and the race there last year (Larson on pole, Bowman won the race).
NASCAR Cup Series Grant Park 165 Chicago Street Course
Sunday, July 6 at 2 p.m. ET
Track Length: 2.2 Mile Street Course
The Purse: $11,704,450
TV: TNT, 1 p.m. ET
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Distance: 165 miles (75 Laps)
— Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 20)
— Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 45)
— Final Stage (Ends on Lap 75)
Chicago Storylines and Insights
Alex Bowman is the only driver to win at Chicagoland and the Chicago Street Course, he got his first Cup win at Chicagoland in 2019 in the last race held on the oval and won the last race on the Chicago Street Course in 2024.
· Three of the eight remaining races before the Playoffs are on road courses — Chicago, Sonoma, Watkins Glen.
· Each of the last five road course races were won by a different driver.
· Five of the last 11 road course races were won by drivers getting their first road course win.
· Hendrick Motorsports leads all teams in poles, wins, top fives, top 10s, laps led and average finish on road courses in the Next Gen era (2022–2025).
· Hendrick Motorsports drivers won five of the last nine road course races with three different drivers winning: William Byron and Kyle Larson (two each) and Alex Bowman (one).
· The Stage 1 winner finished outside the top-10 in each of the last five road course races.
· Chase Elliott and Christopher Bell finished in the top-five in the last three road course races, the longest active streaks.
· Chase Elliott leads all drivers with 10 top-five finishes in the Next Gen car on road courses but none of his seven road course wins came in the Next Gen car.
· Christopher Bell finished in the top-two in the last three road course races including a win at COTA this year.
· Chris Buescher has the best average finish on road courses in the Next Gen car (8.8), Chase Elliott is the only other driver with a top-10 average finish on road courses in the Next Gen (9.8).
· Ryan Blaney is on a 20-race streak without a top-five finish on road courses.
· Denny Hamlin’s only top-10 finish on a road course in his 18 starts in the Next Gen car is a runner-up at Watkins Glen in 8/2023.
· Brad Keselowski is on a 17-race streak without a top-10 finish on a road course.
· The driver leading the most laps won six of the last 10 road course races.
· Both Chicago Street Course winners took the lead for the final time with eight laps to go.
· Chris Buescher finished in the top-10 in the last four races, tied for his longest Cup top-10 finish streak.
· The last nine races of 2025 were won by nine different drivers, seven of the nine got their first win of the season.
· Hendrick Motorsports had at least one car finish top-five in the last 26 races, the team’s longest ever top-five streak in Cup.
· The top-three drivers in 2025 regular season standings are all Hendrick Motorsports’ drivers (William Byron-1st, Chase Elliott-2nd, Kyle Larson-3rd), it’s the third race this year that the top-three in regular season standings were all Hendrick Motorsports’ drivers (2025 is the first season since 2014 that Hendrick drivers ranked 1–2–3 in points following multiple races in the season).
· 2025 is the second straight season that Chase Elliott completed all but one lap of the season entering the 18th race of the season.
· Chase Elliott became the fourth driver to reach 20 wins with Hendrick Motorsports.
· 41 drivers on the entry list this weekend are the most since 45 for the 2025 Daytona 500.
· 7 of the 15 road course regular season races in the Next Gen were won by a driver ranked 16th or worse in the Playoff standings, including both Chicago races.
· This season, 82% of laps at road courses were led by drivers above the Playoff cutline.
DATA
CHICAGO STREET RACE DRIVER-SPECIFIC STATISTICS
(Driver stats below are from 2023 — Present)
Christopher Bell
(№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One top 20
· Average Finish of 27.500, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 7.807, second-best
· Driver Rating of 102.5, fourth-best
· 108 Laps in the Top 15 (79.4%), fourth-most
Alex Bowman
(№48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, one top five, one top 10
· Average Finish of 19.000, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 16.113, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 83.6, seventh-best
· 89 Laps in the Top 15 (65.4%), sixth-most
Chris Buescher
(№17 RFK Racing Ford)
· One top 10
· Average Finish of 15.000, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 17.642, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 80.1, 12th-best
· 67 Laps in the Top 15 (49.3%), 13th-most
Kyle Busch
(№8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· One top five, two top 10s
· Average Finish of 7.000, third-best
· Average Running Position of 18.071, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 80.7, 10th-best
· 69 Laps in the Top 15 (50.7%), 12th-most
Chase Elliott
(№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One top five, one top 10
· Average Finish of 12.000, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 15.891, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 80.4, 11th-best
· 74 Laps in the Top 15 (54.4%), ninth-most
Ty Gibbs
(№54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One top five, two top 10s
· Average Finish of 6.000, series-best
· Average Running Position of 6.472, series-best
· Driver Rating of 112.0, series-best
· 136 Laps in the Top 15 (100.0%), series-most
Justin Haley
(№7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One top five, one top 10
· Average Finish of 9.000, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 18.272, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 85.3, sixth-best
· 46 Laps in the Top 15 (33.8%), 20th-most
Kyle Larson
(№5 Hendrick Motorsport Chevrolet)
· One top five, one top 10; one pole
· Average Finish of 21.500, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 12.816, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 101.4, fifth-best
· 109 Laps in the Top 15 (80.1%), third-most
Michael McDowell
(№71 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One top five, two top 10s
· Average Finish of 6.000, second-best
· Average Running Position of 17.143, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 81.9, eighth-best
· 78 Laps in the Top 15 (57.4%), seventh-most
Tyler Reddick
(№45 23XI Racing Toyota)
· One top five, one top 10
· Average Finish of 15.000, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 8.967, third-best
· Driver Rating of 104.5, third-best
· 110 Laps in the Top 15 (80.9%), second-most
Daniel Suarez
(№99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet)
· One top 15
· Average Finish of 19.000, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.198, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 81.8, ninth-best
· 75 Laps in the Top 15 (55.1%), eighth-most
Shane Van Gisbergen
(№88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet)
· One win, one top five, one top 10
· Average Finish of 20.500, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.651, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 110.8, second-best
· 97 Laps in the Top 15 (71.3%), fifth-most
NASCAR Cup Series 2025 Top 16 in the Driver Standings at Chicago Street Race
GFT Box Scores
Chase Elliott’s victory at Atlanta returns Toyota and Chevrolet to a tie with 7 wins each in the Manufacturer competition. Joe Gibbs Racing still leads the Team Box Score.
Atlanta NASCAR Fantasy LIVE Results— GFT AI 1 bot scored 167 points in another solid performance of our GFT AI Race Prediction Models. The score moved our GFT AI 1 bot to a #TMDNASCAR League Rank of 197, meaning GFT AI 1 Bot is outperforming 96.30% of all players.
Initial NASCAR Fantasy LIVE GFT AI Race Prediction model picks for Chicago
Initial GFT Fast Five: SVG, Bell, Reddick, Elliott, and Buescher, with Dinger in the Garage.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: The GFT models will update after Cup Series practice and qualifying on Saturday, when the data is ingested into the models and the models rerun prediction scenarios overnight. We will then publish the FINAL race prediction on our X (formerly Twitter) channel on Sunday, usually 2 hours before the Green flag. If you want our final and best predictions, follow us at https://x.com/BobFullThrottle and check the feed on Sunday. Then set your #NASCARFantasyLIVE lineup and place your bets.
