GFT Facts and Stats Friday: Data and Race Predictions for the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway
4 April 2025
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News
DARLINGTON, SC — It’s time for one of NASCAR’s most iconic events of the year with Throwback Weekend and the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway. This weekend marks the 128th running of a NASCAR Cup Series race at Darlington Raceway as the track celebrates its 75th Anniversary (1950–2025).
NASCAR Cup Series Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway
Sunday, April 6 at 3 p.m. ET with a purse of $11,055,250
TV: FS1 & FOX Deportes, 2 p.m. ET
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Distance: 400.2 miles (293 Laps)
— Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 90)
— Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 185)
— Final Stage (Ends on Lap 293)
Track Facts
Track Length: 1.366 Miles Asphalt Oval
Race Lengths: 500 Miles (367 laps)
Grandstand Seating Capacity: 50,000
First Race: Sept. 4, 1950 — Southern 500
Degree of Banking in Corners: 25 degrees — Turns 1 & 2; 23 degrees — Turns 3 & 4
Banking on Straights: 6 degrees
Frontstretch: 1,229 feet
Backstretch: 1,229 feet
Qualifying & Race Records
Qualifying: Kevin Harvick, Chevrolet, 183.479 mph; April 12, 2014
Race: Matt Kenseth, Toyota, 141.383 mph (3:32:45); May 11, 2013
Track Records
Most Wins: 10 — David Pearson
Most Poles: 12 — David Pearson
Most Top Fives: 25 — Richard Petty
Most Top 10s: 35 — Bill Elliott
NASCAR Cup Series Darlington Storylines and Insights
Of the 55 NASCAR Cup Series Darlington Raceway winners, eight will be active this weekend:
·Kyle Larson leads all drivers in laps led in the Next Gen car at Darlington Raceway with 392 laps out front.
· JGR led 37% of the laps raced at Darlington in the Next Gen car but have more DNFs than top fives.
· Bubba Wallace ranks second in laps run in the top-five and in the top-10 in 2025 in the Cup Series.
NASCAR Throwback Weekend Paint Schemes
See the full gallery here:
Paint Scheme Preview: 2025 Darlington Throwback Weekend
DATA — GFT NASCAR AI DRIVER RANKINGS
Winner = Denny Hamlin
Holding P1 in the GFT AI Driver Rankings = William Byron
Moving UP Chase Briscoe, +8 to P16
Moving DOWN Josh Berry, -3 to P13
DATA FEEDS
NASCAR CUP SERIES DRIVER AND PLAYOFF STANDINGS
DARLINGTON RACEWAY-SPECIFIC STATISTICS
(Drivers are listed in alphabetical order; Loop Data stats in the below section are from 2005-Present)
Christopher Bell
(№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Two top fives, three top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 15.182, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.521, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 81.9, 12th-best
· 2,193 Laps in the Top 15 (62.5%), 12th-most
Kyle Busch
(№8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· One win, seven top fives, 15 top 10s
· Average Finish of 13.423, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 10.794, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.0, third-best
· 7,054 Laps in the Top 15 (78.1%), fifth-most
William Byron
(№24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, four top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 16.000, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 10.702, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 94.4, seventh-best
· 3,343 Laps in the Top 15 (78.8%), fourth-most
Ross Chastain
(№1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet)
· Three top fives, three top 10s
· Average Finish of 18.455, 17th-best
· Average Running Position of 18.082, 18th-best
· Driver Rating of 77.0, 14th-best
· 1,645 Laps in the Top 15 (49.3%), 18th-most
Chase Elliott
(№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Four top fives, seven top 10s
· Average Finish of 16.313, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.107, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 83.2, 11th-best
· 3,508 Laps in the Top 15 (65.6%), 10th-most
Ty Gibbs
(№54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One top five, one top 10
· Average Finish of 14.800, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.620, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 78.9, 13th-best
· 845 Laps in the Top 15 (50.0%), 13th-most
Denny Hamlin
(№11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Four wins, 13 top fives, 18 top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 8.200, series-best
· Average Running Position of 7.745, series-best
· Driver Rating of 107.0, second-best
· 7,677 Laps in the Top 15 (88.7%), series-most
Erik Jones
(№43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota)
· Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
· Average Finish of 13.214, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.533, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.3, 10th-best
· 3,000 Laps in the Top 15 (65.1%), 11th-most
Brad Keselowski
(№6 RFK Racing Ford)
· Two wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 11.045, third-best
· Average Running Position of 12.154, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.3, eighth-best
· 5,179 Laps in the Top 15 (68.5%), eighth-most
Kyle Larson
(№5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s
· Average Finish of 10.786, second-best
· Average Running Position of 9.075, second-best
· Driver Rating of 108.1, series-best
· 3,982 Laps in the Top 15 (82.1%), second-most
Joey Logano
(№22 Team Penske Ford)
· One win, six top fives, 11 top 10s; two poles
· Average Finish of 13.318, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.469, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.5, ninth-best
· 5,637 Laps in the Top 15 (74.6%), sixth-most
Tyler Reddick
(№45 23XI Racing Toyota)
· Three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 13.091, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 9.941, third-best
· Driver Rating of 94.8, sixth-best
· 2,847 Laps in the Top 15 (81.1%), third-most
DARLINGTON DRIVER RATINGS
INITIAL GFT AI RACE PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR DARLINGTON
This week Kyle Larson returns as the favorite from the initial GFT AI NASCAR Race Prediction Model output for Sunday’s Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway.
Joining Larson in the GFT initial FAST FIVE are Bell, Reddick, Hamlin, and 2024 winner Brad Keselowski. The model also recommends Chase Briscoe (also a winner in 2024) as our garage pick. Among active drivers, Hamlin has the most wins (4 - 2010, 2017, 2020, 2021) at Darlington.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: The GFT models will update after Cup Series practice and qualifying on Saturday. Then that data is ingested into the models and the models rerun prediction scenarios overnight. We will then publish the FINAL race prediction on our X (formerly Twitter) channel on Sunday, usually 2 hours before the Green flag. If you want our final and best predictions, follow us at https://x.com/BobFullThrottle
