GFT Facts and Stats Friday: Data and Race Predictions for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway
11 April 2025
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News
BRISTOL, TN — This weekend marks the 126th running of a NASCAR Cup Series race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Denny Hamlin (3) and Kyle Larson (2) have combined to win five of the last eight Bristol races. Kyle Larson led 462 of the 500 laps led at Bristol last September, the most ever led by a Hendrick Motorsports driver in a Cup race. Six of the 44 NASCAR Cup Series Bristol Motor Speedway race winners are entered in this weekend’s race.
NASCAR Cup Series Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway
Sunday, April 13 at 3 p.m. ET
The Purse: $11,055,250
TV: FS1, 1:30 p.m. ET
Radio: PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Distance: 266.5 miles (500 Laps)
— Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 125)
— Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 250)
— Final Stage (Ends on Lap 500)
Track Facts
Track Length: 0.533-Mile
Race Length: (500 laps = 266.5 miles)
First Race: July 30, 1961 — Volunteer 500
Banking: Turns vary from 24 to 28 degrees, frontstretch varies from 5 to 9 degrees, backstretch varies from 4–8 degrees
Frontstretch: 650 feet
Backstretch: 650 feet
Qualifying & Race Records
Qualifying: Chase Elliott, Chevrolet, 131.713 mph (14.568 sec.); April 7, 2019
Race: Kyle Larson; Chevrolet, 101.277 mph (2:37:53); September 21, 2024
Track Records
Most Wins: 12 — Darrell Waltrip
Most Poles: 9 — Cale Yarborough, Mark Martin
Most Top Fives: 26 — Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip
Most Top 10s: 37 — Richard Petty
NASCAR Cup Series Bristol Storylines and Insights
Kyle Larson finished top-10 in 10 of his last 11 Bristol starts including top-fives in all five races there with Hendrick Motorsports.
· Four drivers finished top-10 in the four Bristol races in the Gen 7 car: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Chase Elliott.
· Five drivers finished top-10 in both races at Bristol last year: Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott.
· Three of the five drivers to finish top-10 in both Bristol races last year are Hendrick Motorsports drivers: Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott.
· Joe Gibbs Racing drivers led 957 of the 2,000 laps raced at Bristol in the Gen 7 car (48%).
· Kyle Busch’s eight Bristol wins rank fifth all-time but he finished 20th or worse in each of the last five races there.
· Teams swept the top-two finishing positions in both races at Bristol in 2024: Joe Gibbs Racing in March and Hendrick Motorsports in September.
· Denny Hamlin will make his 400th consecutive start at Bristol, the 29th to ever do so in the Cup Series and third active driver.
· The polesitter finished second in each of the last three races this year, the longest such streak since May 1972.
· Denny Hamlin has tied Kyle Busch for most wins among Joe Gibbs Racing drivers at 56.
· Joey Logano is one of only two defending champions without a top-five finish through the season’s first 8 races (Bill Elliott — 1989)
· 2025 is the first time since 2018 that five different teams won the pole in the first eight races of the season.
· Denny Hamlin can become the third oldest driver to win three consecutive Cup races, and the oldest since Harry Gant in September 1991.
· Josh Berry accounts for two of Ford’s six top-five finishes in 2025 including the only win.
· Ford’s six top fives are their fewest since 1981 (6) and their 20 top-10s are their fewest since 2016 (14).
· 2024 NASCAR Cup Champion Joey Logano’s 260 laps led in 2025 are the most for a driver through the first eight races without a top-five finish since 2016 (Matt Kenseth — 306).
· Ryan Blaney ranks second in 2025 in stage points earned (85), 36% of his total points this season came from stages.
· William Byron leads all drivers with 354 laps led in 2025, the fewest by the driver leading the most laps after eight races in a season since Jim Paschal’s 220 in 1963.
· Three drivers finished on the lead lap in all eight races in 2205: Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick.
DATA — GFT NASCAR AI DRIVER RANKINGS
DATA FEEDS
NASCAR CUP SERIES DRIVER AND PLAYOFF STANDINGS
BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY-SPECIFIC STATISTICS
(Drivers are listed in alphabetical order; Loop Data stats in the below section are from 2005-Present)
Christopher Bell
(№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 12.571, third-best
· Average Running Position of 8.228, series-best
· Driver Rating of 103.5, second-best
· 2,960 Laps in the Top 15 (84.6%), 16th-most
Ryan Blaney
(№12 Team Penske Ford)
· Two top fives, six top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 18.625, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.744, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 87.8, ninth-best
· 5,153 Laps in the Top 15 (64.4%), ninth-most
Chase Briscoe
(№19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One top 10
· Average Finish of 15.000, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 14.587, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 77.3, 13th-best
· 1,482 Laps in the Top 15 (59.3%), 21st-most
Kyle Busch
(№8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· Eight wins, 14 top fives, 19 top 10s; two poles
· Average Finish of 14.472, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.706, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.4, fourth-best
· 11,222 Laps in the Top 15 (62.3%), second-most
William Byron
(№24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Two top fives, four top 10s
· Average Finish of 17.364, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 9.974, third-best
· Driver Rating of 97.6, third-best
· 5,917 Laps in the Top 15 (78.9%), 14th-most
Chase Elliott
(№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 11.000, series-best
· Average Running Position of 9.974, third-best
· Driver Rating of 97.6, third-best
· 5,917 Laps in the Top 15 (78.9%), eighth-most
Ty Gibbs
(№54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One top five, two top 10s
· Average Finish of 16.000, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.897, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 88.4, eighth-best
· 1,264 Laps in the Top 15 (63.2%), 23rd-most
Denny Hamlin
(№11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Four wins, 12 top fives, 19 top 10s; four poles
· Average Finish of 13.286, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.710, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.6, fifth-best
· 12,038 Laps in the Top 15 (68.7%), series-most
Erik Jones
(№43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota)
· Four top fives, five top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 15.923, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.874, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 80.8, 12th-best
· 3,568 Laps in the Top 15 (54.9%), 11th-most
Brad Keselowski
(№6 RFK Racing Ford)
· Three wins, seven top fives, ten top 10s
· Average Finish of 16.185, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.881, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.8, seventh-best
· 8,694 Laps in the Top 15 (64.3%), fifth-most
Kyle Larson
(№5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Two wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 11.000, second-best
· Average Running Position of 9.922, second-best
· Driver Rating of 106.6, series-best
· 6,601 Laps in the Top 15 (77.5%), seventh-most
Joey Logano
(№22 Team Penske Ford)
· Two wins, six top fives, ten top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 16.724, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.444, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.4, 10th-best
· 8,429 Laps in the Top 15 (58.1%), sixth-most
BRISTOL DRIVER RATINGS
NASCAR Cup Series 2025 Top 16 in the Driver Standings at Bristol Motor Speedway
GFT BOX SCORES
INITIAL GFT AI RACE PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR BRISTOL
This week Kyle Larson is the favorite from the initial GFT AI NASCAR Race Prediction Model output for Sunday’s Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Joining Larson in the GFT initial FAST FIVE are Bell, Elliott, Hamlin, and Busch. The model also recommends Chris Buescher as our garage pick. Among active drivers, Kyle Busch has the most wins (8) at Bristol.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: The GFT models will update after Cup Series practice and qualifying on Saturday. Then that data is ingested into the models and the models rerun prediction scenarios overnight. We will then publish the FINAL race prediction on our X (formerly Twitter) channel on Sunday, usually 2 hours before the Green flag. If you want our final and best predictions, follow us at https://x.com/BobFullThrottle
