GFT Facts and Stats Friday: Data and Race Predictions for the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway
29 August 2025
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News
DARLINGTON, SC — This weekend marks the 129th running of a NASCAR Cup Series race at Darlington Raceway, and the 76th running of the Southern 500. This is the sixth time Darlington hosted a Playoff race, and the fifth-time it has hosted the opening race (2020–2023, 2025).
Darlington Raceway is one of five different tracks to open the postseason for the NASCAR Cup Series alongside New Hampshire (2004–2010), Chicagoland (2011–2017), Las Vegas (2018–2019) and Atlanta (2024). Five times the winner of the opening race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs has gone on to win the championship — 2004 (Kurt Busch), 2011 (Tony Stewart), 2012 (Brad Keselowski), 2017 (Martin Truex Jr.) and 2024 (Joey Logano).
NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out Southern 500
Darlington Raceway — 1.366 Mile Asphalt Oval
Sunday, August 31 at 6 p.m. ET
The Purse: $10,447,135
TV: USA, 5:30 p.m. ET
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Distance: 501.32 miles (367 Laps)
— Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 115)
— Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 230)
— Final Stage (Ends on Lap 367)
Darlington Raceway Storylines and Insights:
The last seven Darlington Cup races were won by seven different drivers.
Denny Hamlin, with three wins, is the only repeat winner in the last 11 Darlington races.
This weekend, eight of the 55 NASCAR Cup Series Darlington race winners are active:
· The final green flag stretch was less than 17 laps in only two of the last 10 Darlington races.
· The driver who led the most laps finished 22nd or worse in three of the last five Southern 500s.
· Last year’s Southern 500 had 26 lead changes, the most for a race at Darlington since 2008. By contrast, last April’s race at Darlington featured only four lead changes, the fewest for a Cup race at Darlington since the inaugural Southern 500 in 1950.
· William Byron led the opening 243 laps at Darlington in April; the most laps led from the start in the track’s history. He won both stages but finished second in the race.
· A driver swept the stages at Darlington seven times, but only once went on to win (Martin Truex Jr — 05/2021).
· Eight of the 14 stage winners at Darlington in the Next Gen car finished 25th or worse.
· Every winner since 2006 at Darlington had a minimum of 100 career Cup starts.
· Six drivers earned their first Cup Series win at Darlington, four of them got their only Cup victory.
· Nine drivers snapped 50+ race winless streaks at Darlington including both 2024 races; tied for the most among non-drafting tracks with Phoenix.
· Denny Hamlin led in the last 11 Darlington races, the longest streak at the track since Darrell Waltrip’s 17 straight races from 1976–1984.
· Ross Chastain is set to make his 250th Cup start this weekend, six drivers won their 250th Cup start (most recently Chris Buescher at Bristol in September 2022) and two did so at Darlington.
· Ryan Blaney finished in the top-10 in the last six races, his longest ever Cup top-10 streak.
· 2025 is the fifth straight season that a Hendrick Motorsports driver entered the Playoffs seeded #1.
· The average time for the Southern 500 is 4:15:50, the average time for the Coke 600 is 4:26:55.
· The eventual winner of the Southern 500 didn’t lead for the first time until Lap 158 in eight of the last nine Darlington races.
· The Southern 500 hasn’t ended in overtime since 2014.
NCS Clinch Scenarios For Darlington Raceway (Playoff Race #1):
Already Clinched
· No drivers have clinched a spot in the 12-driver field of the next round.
Can Clinch Via Win
· The following drivers would clinch on their win alone: Kyle Larson, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Shane Van Gisbergen, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric, Bubba Wallace, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Josh Berry, Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon, Alex Bowman
DATA
DARLINGTON RACEWAY-SPECIFIC STATISTICS
(The Playoff driver stats below are during the Loop Data Era: 2005 to Present)
Kyle Larson
(№5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· One win, seven top fives, nine top 10s
· Average Finish of 12.533, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.968, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 102.5, second-best
· 3,982 Laps in the Top 15 (77.4%), seventh-most
William Byron
(№24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· One win, five top fives, seven top 10s, two poles
· Average Finish of 15.000, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 10.046, third-best
· Driver Rating of 97.9, third-best
· 3,640 Laps in the Top 15 (80.2%), ninth-most
Denny Hamlin
(№11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· Five wins, 14 top fives, 19 top 10s, one pole
· Average Finish of 7.923, series-best
· Average Running Position of 7.763, series-best
· Driver Rating of 107.3, series-best
· 7,919 Laps in the Top 15 (88.4%), series-most
Ryan Blaney
(№12 Team Penske Ford)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· One top five, four top 10s
· Average Finish of 18.765, 22nd-best
· Average Running Position of 17.759, 16th-best
· Driver Rating of 76.7, 15th-best
· 2,570 Laps in the Top 15 (45.6%), 12th-most
Christopher Bell
(№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· Three top fives, four top 10s, one pole
· Average Finish of 14.167, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.534, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 82.6, 12th-best
· 2,355 Laps in the Top 15 (61.9%), 14th-most
Shane Van Gisbergen
(№88 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· One top 20
· Average Finish of 23.000, 31st-best
· Average Running Position of 27.835, 41st-best
· Driver Rating of 46.1, 40th-best
· 20 Laps in the Top 15 (3.0%), 41st-most
Chase Elliott
(№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· Four top fives, eight top 10s,
· Average Finish of 15.824, 14th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.120, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 83.1, 11th-best
· 3,700 Laps in the Top 15 (65.6%), eighth-most
Chase Briscoe
(№19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· One win, two top fives, two top 10s
· Average Finish of 15.889, 15th-best
· Average Running Position of 18.122, 18th-best
· Driver Rating of 67.7, 21st-best
· 1,145 Laps in the Top 15 (39.0%), 19th-most
Bubba Wallace
(№23 23XI Racing Toyota)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· One top five, four top 10s, one pole
· Average Finish of 18.500, 20th-best
· Average Running Position of 16.978, 14th-best
· Driver Rating of 72.5, 17th-best
· 1,933 Laps in the Top 15 (42.6%), 17th-most
Austin Cindric
(№2 Team Penske Ford)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· Average Finish of 18.286, 19th-best
· Average Running Position of 19.542, 22nd-best
· Driver Rating of 65.2, 22nd-best
· 689 Laps in the Top 15 (30.2%), 25th-most
Ross Chastain
(№1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· Three top fives, four top 10s,
· Average Finish of 17.500, 17th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.760, 17th-best
· Driver Rating of 77.9, 14th-best
· 1,837 Laps in the Top 15 (45.5%), 18th-most
Joey Logano
(№22 Shell Pennzoil Ford)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· One win, six top fives, 11 top 10s, ; two poles
· Average Finish of 13.304, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.350, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.7, eighth-best
· 5,885 Laps in the Top 15 (74.9%), fourth-most
Josh Berry
(№21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· One top five, one top 10,
· Average Finish of 25.000, 34th-best
· Average Running Position of 18.753, 21st-best
· Driver Rating of 69.9, 19th-best
· 581 Laps in the Top 15 (46.4%), 27th-most
Tyler Reddick
(№45 23XI Racing Toyota)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· Four top fives, six top 10s, ; one pole
· Average Finish of 12.333, third-best
· Average Running Position of 9.692, second-best
· Driver Rating of 96.9, sixth-best
· 3,127 Laps in the Top 15 (82.1%), 11th-most
Austin Dillon
(№3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· Two top fives, five top 10s,
· Average Finish of 15.611, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 18.617, 20th-best
· Driver Rating of 68.5, 20th-best
· 1,947 Laps in the Top 15 (32.4%), 16th-most
Alex Bowman
(№48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Darlington Raceway Outlook:
· One top five, four top 10s,
· Average Finish of 19.800, 23rd-best
· Average Running Position of 18.373, 19th-best
· Driver Rating of 71.7, 18th-best
· 1,976 Laps in the Top 15 (39.6%), 15th-most
NASCAR Cup Series 2025 Top 16 in the Driver Standings at Darlington Raceway (Sorted by Driver Rating)
GFT Box Scores
Most Wins: Hamlin/Van Gisbergen tied with 4
Manufacturer: Chevrolet leads with 12
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing leads with 8 wins
NASCAR Fantasy LIVE Results from the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona— GFT AI 1 bot scored 100 points, not our best performance. Even with challenges, our GFT AI Race Prediction Models still keep GFT AI 1 bot with a #TMDNASCAR League Rank of 162, meaning GFT AI 1 Bot is outperforming 96.97% of all players (5,328) in the league.
Initial NASCAR Fantasy LIVE GFT AI Race Prediction model picks for the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington
Initial GFT Fast Five: Hamlin, Larson, Byron, Blaney, Bell, with Logano in the Garage.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: The GFT models will update after Cup Series practice and qualifying on Saturday, when the data is ingested into the models and the models rerun prediction scenarios overnight. We will then publish the FINAL race prediction on our X (formerly Twitter) channel on Sunday, usually 2 hours before the Green flag. If you want our final and best predictions, follow us at https://x.com/BobFullThrottle and check the feed on Sunday. Then set your #NASCARFantasyLIVE lineup and place your bets.
