GFT Facts and Stats Friday: Data and Race Predictions for the Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway
28 March 2025
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News
MARTINSVILLE, VA — This weekend marks the 153rd running of a NASCAR Cup Series race at Martinsville Speedway. Martinsville is the only track that hosted a race every season (1949–2025).
Martinsville is the first of six short-track races in 2025.
NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 3 p.m. ET
The Purse: $11,055,250
TV: FS1, 1:30 p.m. ET
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Distance: 210.4 miles (400 Laps)
— Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 80)
— Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 180)
— Final Stage (Ends on Lap 400)
QUALIFYING & RACE RECORDS
Track Qualifying Record:
Joey Logano, Team Penske Ford, 100.201 mph, 18.898 secs. March 26, 2014
2024 Spring Martinsville Pole Winner:
Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, 96.034 mph, 19.718 secs. April 6, 2024
Track Race Record:
Jeff Gordon, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, 82.223 mph, (3:11:55), September 22, 1996
2024 Spring Martinsville Race:
William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, 76.096 mph, (2:52:07), April 7, 2024
NASCAR Cup Series Martinsville Storylines and Insights:
· Martinsville Speedway, at 152 NASCAR Cup Series points-paying races, has hosted the second-most points-paying events all-time, behind only Daytona International Speedway at 156.
· Martinsville has held a Playoff race every year of the postseason (2004–2025), and this is the sixth straight year Martinsville held the race prior to the Championship (2020–2025).
· Hendrick Motorsports drivers won five of the last nine Martinsville races with all four active drivers winning at least once (William Byron is the repeat winner with two).
· The last five Martinsville races were won from starting positions outside the top-10, tied for the longest streak ever at Martinsville.
· Hendrick Motorsports finished 1–2–3 at Martinsville in April, the first 1–2–3 finish by a team ever at the track.
· The last seven races at Martinsville were won by drivers 30 years old or younger, the longest streak ever at the track.
· All but three of the last 76 races at Martinsville dating to 1987 were won by a driver with at least 100 career Cup Series starts
· A total of 59 different drivers have won in the NASCAR Cup Series at Martinsville Speedway. This weekend, 10 of the 59 different NASCAR Cup Series Martinsville Speedway winners will be active.
· Christopher Bell’s win at Martinsville in October 2022 to advance to the Championship 4 Round is his only top-five finish at the track in nine starts.
· Alex Bowman’s October 2021 Martinsville win is his only top-five finish at the track in 17 starts.
· Chase Briscoe’s five top-10 finishes at Martinsville are his most at a track, all five came in the last six races.
· Joey Logano’s 11 straight top 10s at Martinsville is the longest active top-10 streak at Martinsville and his longest streak at any track.
· Ryan Blaney’s 10 top-five finishes at Martinsville are his most at a track, he finished top-seven in the last six races there including winning the Martinsville Playoff race the last two years sending him to the Championship 4 Round both times.
· The last 13 Martinsville races were won by three organizations: Hendrick Motorsports (five), Joe Gibbs Racing (four), Team Penske (four).
· Six different pole winners in first six Cup races in 2025 — has only occurred four times in the Modern Era (1998, 2014, 2019, 2025).
· 2025 is the first time since 2016 that five different teams won the pole in the first six races of the season.
· Hendrick Motorsports won the pole for four of the last six races on short-tracks.
DATA — GFT NASCAR AI DRIVER RANKINGS
Moving UP:
Bubba Wallace +10 to P7
AJ Dinger +7 to P12
Chase Briscoe +6 to P23
Moving DOWN:
Bell -4 to P8
Hocevar -5 to P21
DATA FEEDS
NASCAR CUP SERIES DRIVER AND PLAYOFF STANDINGS
MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY-SPECIFIC STATISTICS
(Drivers are listed in alphabetical order; Loop Data stats in the below section are from 2005-Present)
Christopher Bell
(№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One win, one top five, three top 10s
· Average Finish of 16.800, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.401, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 81.9, 12th-best
· 2,590 Laps in the Top 15 (54.9%), 12th-most
Josh Berry
(№21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford)
· One top 20
· Average Finish of 20.500, 22nd-best
· Average Running Position of 16.447, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 73.4, 14th-best
· 334 Laps in the Top 15 (36.5%), 32nd-most
Ryan Blaney
(№12 Team Penske Ford)
· Two wins, ten top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average Finish of 8.333, series-best
· Average Running Position of 9.082, series-best
· Driver Rating of 102.4, third-best
· 6,825 Laps in the Top 15 (78.2%), third-most
Alex Bowman
(№48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, one top five, five top 10s
· Average Finish of 18.529, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 18.301, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 74.3, 13th-best
· 4,118 Laps in the Top 15 (50.1%), 13th-most
Chase Briscoe
(№19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Two top fives, five top 10s
· Average Finish of 12.750, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 11.849, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 88.1, ninth-best
· 2,373 Laps in the Top 15 (63.8%), ninth-most
Kyle Busch
(№8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· Two wins, 17 top fives, 21 top 10s; two poles
· Average Finish of 13.308, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.481, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.6, seventh-best
· 13,496 Laps in the Top 15 (70.1%), seventh-most
William Byron
(№24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
· Average Finish of 13.357, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.478, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 90.6, eighth-best
· 4,278 Laps in the Top 15 (63.7%), 10th-most
Chase Elliott
(№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 12.158, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.548, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 102.1, fourth-best
· 6,909 Laps in the Top 15 (74.9%), fourth-most
Denny Hamlin
(№11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Five wins, 20 top fives, 26 top 10s; four poles
· Average Finish of 10.053, third-best
· Average Running Position of 9.291, second-best
· Driver Rating of 105.5, second-best
· 15,139 Laps in the Top 15 (80.7%), series-most
Brad Keselowski
(№6 RFK Racing Ford)
· Two wins, 12 top fives, 18 top 10s
· Average Finish of 12.367, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.806, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.7, sixth-best
· 10,535 Laps in the Top 15 (71.4%), sixth-most
Kyle Larson
(№5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, six top fives, eight top 10s; two poles
· Average Finish of 16.050, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.705, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.9, 10th-best
· 6,461 Laps in the Top 15 (66.4%), eighth-most
Joey Logano
(№22 Team Penske Ford)
· One win, 11 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
· Average Finish of 10.781, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.778, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 96.8, fifth-best
· 11,794 Laps in the Top 15 (74.9%), fifth-most
MARTINSVILLE DRIVER RATINGS
INITIAL GFT AI RACE PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR MARTINSVILLE
This week Denny Hamlin emerges as the favorite from the initial GFT AI NASCAR Race Prediction Model output for Sunday’s Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway.
Joining Denny Hamlin in the GFT initial FAST FIVE are Blaney, Bowman, Reddick, and Elliott. The model also recommends Joey Logano as our garage pick. Among active drivers, Hamlin has 5 wins at Martinsville.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: The GFT models will update after Cup Series practice and qualifying on Saturday. Then that data is ingested into the models and the models rerun prediction scenarios overnight. We will then publish the FINAL race prediction on our X (formerly Twitter) channel on Sunday, usually 2 hours before the Green flag. If you want our final and best predictions, follow us at https://x.com/BobFullThrottle
