GFT Facts and Stats Friday: Data and Race Predictions for the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway
9 May 2025
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News
KANSAS CITY, KS — This weekend marks the 39th running of a NASCAR Cup Series race at Kansas Speedway, and the 25th since the repave following the 2012 season.
The last six NASCAR Cup Series races at Kansas Speedway were won by six different drivers; Kyle Larson with two victories is the only repeat winner in the last nine races. The record for different Cup Series winners at Kansas is seven, and it has happened twice: 2002–2008 and 2020–2023.
NASCAR Cup Series AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway
Sunday, May 11 at 3 p.m. ET
The Purse: $11,055,250
TV: FS1 & FOX Deportes, 1:30 p.m. ET
Radio: MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Distance: 400.5 miles (267 Laps)
— Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 80)
— Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 165)
— Final Stage (Ends on Lap 267)
Kansas Speedway Track Facts
Track Length: 1.5 Miles
Race Length: 400 Miles (267 laps)
First Race: Sept. 30, 2001 — Protection One 400
Banking in Corners: 17–20 degrees (variable)
Banking on Frontstretch: 10 degrees
Banking on Backstretch: 5 degrees
Frontstretch: 2,685 feet
Backstretch: 2,207 feet
Qualifying & Race Records
Qualifying: Kevin Harvick, Chevrolet, 197.773 mph (27.304 sec.); Oct. 4, 2014 (Round 2 of 3)
Race: Chase Elliott, Chevrolet, 152.057 mph (2:38:02); Oct. 21, 2018
Track Records
Most Wins: 4 — Denny Hamlin
Most Poles: 5 — Kevin Harvick
Most Top Fives: 14 — Denny Hamlin
Most Top 10s: 19 — Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick
Storylines, Trends, Insights, Facts & Stats for Kansas Speedway
· A total of 20 different drivers have won a Cup Series race at Kansas, and nine of the 20 are active this weekend:
— Denny Hamlin (2012, 2019, 2020, 2023)
— Joey Logano (2014, 2015, 2020)
— Kyle Busch (2016, 2021)
— Brad Keselowski (2011, 2019)
— Ross Chastain (2024)
— Tyler Reddick (2023)
— Bubba Wallace (2022)
— Kyle Larson (2021, 2024)
— Chase Elliott (2018).
· Christopher Bell won the pole for the last three races at Kansas, the last driver to win the pole for four straight races at a track was Kyle Larson at Sonoma between 2017 and 2022.
· A total of 19 different drivers have won a Cup Series pole at Kansas, and seven of the 19 are active this weekend: Christopher Bell (2022, 2023, 2024 sweep), Joey Logano (2015, 2018), William Byron (2023), Tyler Reddick (2022), Ryan Blaney (2017), Brad Keselowski (2015), AJ Allmendinger (2012).
· The pass for the win came in the final two laps in three of the last four Kansas Speedway races including two last lap passes.
· The closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history came at Kansas Speedway last May, Kyle Larson beat Chris Buescher by 0.001 second.
· There were 37 lead changes at Kansas in May 2023, the most in a 400 mile race on a 1.5 mile track in series history.
· The driver leading the most laps failed to win the last five Kansas races, the longest streak ever at Kansas.
· Three of 23XI Racing’s eight Cup Series wins came at Kansas Speedway, all three were in the last six races.
· Denny Hamlin has finished inside the top-10 in the last seven Kansas Cup races, the longest active streak.
· Alex Bowman’s 10 top 10s at Kansas are his most at a track.
· Chase Elliott’s 12 top-10 finishes at Kansas are his second most at a track behind 13 at Martinsville.
· William Byron’s eight top-10 finishes at Kansas are tied for his second most at a track behind nine at Phoenix.
· Tyler Reddick led in the last seven Kansas Cup races, tied for the longest streak by a driver at Kansas. Christopher Bell led in the last six Kansas races, the second-longest active streak at the track behind Reddick with seven.
· Kyle Larson’s nine wins on 1.5 mile tracks rank fifth among active drivers, all nine came in his 32 starts on them with Hendrick Motorsports (29% win percentage on them with Hendrick)
· Kyle Larson is the only driver to finish inside the top-10 in all three 1.5 mile races this season.
· Kyle Larson’s average finish of 4.67 on 1.5 mile tracks in 2025 is five positions better than second place William Byron with 9.67.
· Joey Logano, with two, is the only repeat winner in the last seven races on 1.5 mile tracks.
· A Ford driver won only one of the last 11 races at Kansas, Joey Logano in October 2020.
· Spire Motorsports won the pole for two of the three 1.5 mile races this season.
· Kyle Busch finished outside the top-10 in the last seven races on 1.5 mile tracks, he is on a 11-race streak without a top-five finish on 1.5 mile tracks.
· The final lead change came within the last laps two laps in five of the 11 races this season.
· Hendrick Motorsports’ 1,135 laps led in 2025 leads all teams by 419 laps and are the team’s most since 2010.
· 27 top-10 finishes are the most ever by Hendrick Motorsports through 11 races.
· Alex Bowman (two) and William Byron (two) are the only repeat pole winners in 2025.
· Hendrick Motorsports won the pole for four of the last eight races of 2025.
· Kyle Larson leads all drivers with 596 laps led in 2025 in Cup and 440 laps led in the NASCAR Xfinity Series.
· William Byron ranks second in 2025 laps led with 386.
· Kyle Larson leads all drivers with seven top-five finishes and eight top-10 finishes in 2025. Larson’s seven top-five finishes, eight top-10 finishes and 596 laps led in 2025 are his most ever through 11 races in a season.
· Kyle Larson is 148 laps away from 10,000 laps led in Cup, 67% of his laps led came in his five seasons with Hendrick Motorsports.
· Hendrick Motorsports drivers won six of the last eight stages.
· William Byron’s average finish of 8.91 in 2025 leads all drivers and is the best by a Hendrick driver through 11 races since Jimmie Johnson in 2013 with 6.7.
· Hendrick Motorsports had at least one car finish top-five in the last 19 races, the team’s third longest streak all-time and the longest since the team’s longest streak at 24 between 2012 and 2013.
· Hendrick Motorsports is the only team with at least one car finishing in the top-five in all 11 races in 2025, no other team had at least one car finish top-10 in all 11 races this year.
· The top-three drivers in 2025 based on average finish are William Byron (8.9), Kyle Larson (10.6) and Chase Elliott (11.4).
· Three of the top-four in points are Hendrick drivers with Byron 1st, Larson 2nd and Elliott 4th…Alex Bowman is 10th.
· Kyle Larson leads all drivers with six stage wins in 2025, William Byron ranks second with three.
DATA — GFT NASCAR AI DRIVER RANKINGS
DATA FEEDS
NASCAR CUP SERIES DRIVER AND PLAYOFF STANDINGS
KANSAS SPEEDWAY-SPECIFIC STATISTICS
(Drivers are listed in alphabetical order; Loop Data stats in the below section are from 2005-Present)
Christopher Bell
(№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Two top fives, seven top 10s; four poles
· Average Finish of 13.400, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 11.064, third-best
· Driver Rating of 96.2, fourth-best
· 2,090 Laps in the Top 15 (78.2%), 14th-most
Ryan Blaney
(№12 Team Penske Ford)
· Four top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 15.350, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 9.850, series-best
· Driver Rating of 94.2, seventh-best
· 4,218 Laps in the Top 15 (78.7%), seventh-most
Alex Bowman
(№48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Three top fives, 10 top 10s
· Average Finish of 14.667, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 17.143, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 80.7, 13th-best
· 2,659 Laps in the Top 15 (55.1%), 10th-most
Kyle Busch
(№8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· Two wins, 10 top fives, 16 top 10s
· Average Finish of 15.091, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 12.907, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 92.0, eighth-best
· 6,085 Laps in the Top 15 (69.3%), third-most
William Byron
(№24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Three top fives, eight top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 13.857, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.360, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 89.6, 11th-best
· 2,316 Laps in the Top 15 (61.7%), 12th-most
Chase Elliott
(№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average Finish of 10.111, series-best
· Average Running Position of 11.246, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 96.5, third-best
· 3,729 Laps in the Top 15 (77.3%), ninth-most
Ty Gibbs
(№54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One top five, one top 10
· Average Finish of 23.800, 20th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.678, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 79.1, 14th-best
· 757 Laps in the Top 15 (56.6), 24th-most
Denny Hamlin
(№11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Four wins, 14 top fives, 16 top 10s
· Average Finish of 12.182, second-best
· Average Running Position of 11.664, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.9, fifth-best
· 6,419 Laps in the Top 15 (73.1%), second-most
Brad Keselowski
(№6 RFK Racing Ford)
· Two wins, seven top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 12.533, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.184, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.8, 10th-best
· 5,395 Laps in the Top 15 (67.2%), fourth-most
Kyle Larson
(№5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Two wins, eight top fives, 11 top 10s
· Average Finish of 13.000, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.857, second-best
· Driver Rating of 101.5, series-best
· 4,063 Laps in the Top 15 (75.8%), fourth-most
Joey Logano
(№22 Team Penske Ford)
· Three wins, nine top fives, 12 top 10s; two poles
· Average Finish of 16.806, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.491, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.5, 12th-best
· 4,873 Laps in the Top 15 (58.7%), sixth-most
Tyler Reddick
(№45 23XI Racing Toyota)
· One win, one top five, four top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 17.818, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.648, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 89.9, ninth-best
· 1,983 Laps in the Top 15 (67.4%), 15th-most
KANSAS SPEEDWAY DRIVER RATINGS
2025 TOP 16 IN THE CUP DRIVER STANDINGS AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY
GFT BOX SCORES
The GFT AI Race Prediction models started their comeback after the Talladega disaster. Our “Go Full Throttle AI 1” bot scored 171 points at the WURTH 400 at Texas Motor Speedway, improving to a League Rank of 456 and back into the top 10% of all players at 8.59% (meaning our AI bot is outperforming 91.4% of all fantasy players in the #TMDNASCAR league).
This week, the GFT AI Race Prediction Models like Kyle Larson with two wins and the top Driver Rating at 101.5 at Kansas Speedway. However, with only 4 Starts remaining under NASCAR Fantasy Live rules, GFT AI identifies Denny Hamlin as the favorite at Kansas.
The GFT initial FAST FIVE are Hamlin, Blaney, Reddick, Chastain, and Elliott. The model also recommends Bubba Wallace as our garage pick. Among active drivers, Denny Hamlin has the most wins (4) at Kansas Speedway.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: The GFT models will update after Cup Series practice and qualifying on Saturday when the data is ingested into the models and the models rerun prediction scenarios overnight. We will then publish the FINAL race prediction on our X (formerly Twitter) channel on Sunday, usually 2 hours before the Green flag. If you want our final and best predictions, follow us at https://x.com/BobFullThrottle and check the feed on Sunday. Then set your #NASCARFantasyLIVE lineup and place your bets.
