GFT Facts and Stats Friday: 2025 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Circuit of The Americas
28 February 2025
By Bob Francis, Managing Editor
Go Full Throttle Racing News
AUSTIN, TX — NASCAR is back racing on the Circuit of the Americas road course for the 5th time this weekend in Austin, Texas for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix.
Welcome to ‘Facts and Stats Friday’ - a Go Full Throttle Racing News weekly preview with all the data to help fans, NASCAR Fantasy players, and those wagering make your picks. Facts and Stats Friday provides our initial GFT AI Race Prediction model output which is then updated with Practice and Qualifying data on Sunday mornings ahead of the Cup Series race and published on our X social media channel ( https://x.com/BobFullThrottle ).
The Race
NASCAR Cup Series EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix
Circuit of The Americas in Austin, Texas
Track Length: 2.40 Mile Asphalt Road Course
Sunday, March 2 with green flag at 3:30 p.m. ET
The Purse: $11,055,250
TV: FOX, 2:30 p.m. ET
Radio: PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR (Channel 90)
Distance: 228.0 miles (95 Laps)
- Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 20)
- Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 45)
- Final Stage (Ends on Lap 95)
Storylines GFT will be following live from the Media Center at COTA
- For the first time, the NASCAR Cup Series will run the shorter (2.40-mile) track configuration at Circuit of the Americas. The previous four Cup races (2021–2024) were raced on the longer configuration at 3.41-miles.
- Chevrolet won the pole for four of the last five road course races, and Toyota won the pole for four of the prior five.
- Chevrolet won six of the last seven road course races, and Hendrick Motorsports won five of the six.
- Three drivers have won poles at COTA: William Byron won the pole for the last two races at COTA (2023, 2024), Tyler Reddick won it in 2022, and Ryan Blaney won it in 2021.
- The race winner at COTA has started on the front row in the last two COTA races, and the deepest in the field a race winner is started is 16th (Ross Chastain, 2022).
- In 15 of the 17 road course races with the Next Gen car the race winner has started in the top 8.
- Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, and Tyler Reddick are the only drivers to finish inside the top-10 in all four COTA races, no one has finished top-five in all four.
- 16 of the 37 drivers entered at COTA have a Cup road course win.
DATA — GFT NASCAR AI DRIVER RANKINGS
DATA — ACTIVE DRIVERS WITH ROAD COURSE WINS
DATA — NASCAR CUP SERIES DRIVER AND PLAYOFF STANDINGS
DATA — DRIVER RATINGS FOR COTA
DATA — TOP 12 IN COTA-SPECIFIC LOOP DATA STATISTICS
(Drivers are listed in alphabetical order; Loop Data stats in the below section are from 2005-Present)
A.J. Allmendinger
(№16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet)
· One top five, two top 10s
· Average Finish of 19.500, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 10.863, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.5, seventh-best
· 201 Laps in the Top 15 (75.6%), sixth-most
Christopher Bell
(№20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· Two top fives, two top 10s
· Average Finish of 18.500, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 16.964, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 83.5, 12th-best
· 164 Laps in the Top 15 (61.7%), ninth-most
Alex Bowman
(№48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· Three top fives, four top 10s
· Average Finish of 4.250, second-best
· Average Running Position of 9.999, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 103.4, fourth-best
· 213 Laps in the Top 15 (80.1%), fourth-most
Kyle Busch
(№8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet)
· One top five, three top 10s
· Average Finish of 12.250, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 9.869, third-best
· Driver Rating of 95.3, eighth-best
· 215 Laps in the Top 15 (80.8%), third-most
William Byron
(№24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, two top fives, two top 10s; two poles
· Average Finish of 7.250, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 9.919, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 110.4, third-best
· 203 Laps in the Top 15 (76.3%), fifth-most
Ross Chastain
(№1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet)
· One win, three top fives, four top 10s
|· Average Finish of 4.000, series-best
· Average Running Position of 7.107, second-best
· Driver Rating of 117.3, series-best
· 243 Laps in the Top 15 (91.4%), series-most
Austin Cindric
(№2 Team Penske Ford)
· Two top 10s
· Average Finish of 14.500, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.268, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 88.9, ninth-best
· 157 Laps in the Top 15 (59.0%), 10th-most
Chase Elliott
(№9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One win, two top fives, two top 10s
· Average Finish of 7.000, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.968, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 101.9, fifth-best
· 138 Laps in the Top 15 (72.3%), seventh-most
Ty Gibbs
(№54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
· One top five, two top 10s
· Average Finish of 6.000, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.312, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 98.4, sixth-best
· 98 Laps in the Top 15 (68.5%), eighth-most
Kyle Larson
(№5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
· One top five, one top 10
· Average Finish of 15.750, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 16.371, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 85.6, 10th-best
· 143 Laps in the Top 15 (53.8%), 12th-most
Joey Logano
(№22 Team Penske Ford)
· One top five, one top 10
· Average Finish of 18.250, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.308, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 84.8, 11th-best
· 157 Laps in the Top 15 (59.0%), 11th-most
Tyler Reddick
(№45 23XI Racing Toyota)
· One win, three top fives, four top 10s; one pole
· Average Finish of 5.000, third-best
· Average Running Position of 7.051, series-best
· Driver Rating of 111.7, second-best
· 233 Laps in the Top 15 (87.6%), second-most
DATA — WINS AT COTA
· The four NASCAR Cup Series races (2021–2024) at the Circuit of The Americas have produced four different race winners:
o Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott won the inaugural NASCAR Cup Series race at the Circuit of The Americas on May 23, 2021 — he started from the eighth position.
o Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain won the NASCAR Cup Series race at the Circuit of The Americas on March 27, 2022 — he started from the 16th position.
o 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick won the NASCAR Cup Series race at the Circuit of The Americas on March 26, 2023 — he started from the second position.
o Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron won the NASCAR Cup Series race at the Circuit of The Americas on March 24, 2024 — he started from the pole position.
Four different starting positions on the grid have resulted in wins in the NASCAR Cup Series at Circuit of The Americas — 2021 (8th), 2022 (16th), 2023 (2nd) and 2024 (1st).
· Only one of the four NASCAR Cup Series races at Circuit of The Americas has been won from the pole or first starting position and it was the 3/24/2024 race won by Hendrick Motorsports driver William Byron.
· The deepest in the field a Cup race winner has started at COTA is 16th, by Ross Chastain in 2022.
DATA — INITIAL GFT AI RACE PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT FOR COTA
Tyler Reddick and William Byron are the favorites in all the pre-qualifying data. Reddick has the top Driver Rating at 111.7 at COTA, however, Byron is right there at 110.4 and is the defending race winner with a dominating drive in 2024.
NEXT: The GFT models will update after Cup Series qualifying on Saturday, and the data is ingested into the models. We will publish the FINAL race prediction on our X (formerly Twitter) channel on Sunday, usually 2 hours before the Green flag. Follow us at https://x.com/BobFullThrottle
